Posted on 10/06/2004 9:30:13 PM PDT by Herakles
Those same models predicted Gore would win easily in 2000.
NO COMPLACENCY!
I hope these models are accurate.
If Bush/Cheney blows it, I don't know what I'm going to do.
Head for the hills, I guess. Kerry's going to sell out the country to the UN and let it get bombed by terrorists so that he can implement nationalized health care and turn us into a communist car wreck like Canada.
More traditional projections based on voter preference polls show a much closer electoral college vote. A CNN poll survey on Sept. 28 showed 301 electoral votes for Bush.
A second econometrics model -- the President Vote Equation designed by Yale University professor Ray Fair -- has consistently shown a Bush win. In July, the equation predicted a 57.48 percent vote for Bush.
This is not technically economics---it is econometrics.
It can be VERY accurate.
The career accuracy of one econometric model is +/-2.5%, and this summer it stated the President would win with 57%.
GMTA
That would satisfy my poll freak. But to be honest, I simply don't see anything that convinces me Kerry will win. And I'm no optimist.
Sometimes it isn't a matter of "blowing it", but events that no one can predict...and the reaction of the voters to the events...
Well, unless there is (God forbid!) a mobilizing event like another 9/11, I do not see 373 EV for Bush with Kerry in 10-12 states only. RAT operation looks more serious than that, and not likely to self-destruct and implode. (Why can't we have Howard Dean?? It would be so much more fun to watch). I think GWB will win, but with smaller margin, within 50 EV, not 200 EV.
The final Fair model in 2000 predicted Gore would win the popular vote with 50.8% of the two-part vote. He won it with I believe 50.2%.
That said, I simply cannot see, the electorate being as it is, Bush winning 57.5% of the popular vote, or even the lower end of the 2% standard error. We shall see.
That's ridiculous. Bush won't get more than 350 unless he carries all of the swing states.
No he got less than 50% (48.38%) of the popular vote.
Perhaps its time to go to tradesports.com and buy Bush +350. At 12.5, it looks pretty tasty.
Err sorry, I kinda worded that wrong. I was referring to the two-party vote (excluding Nader, etc), which is what the Fair model predicts.
Isn't there a false assumption here that a too large number of people correctly perceive what's happening with the economy? It seems that Bush I proved that they don't.
blue helmets make nice targets. Fear not the UN, when have they been successful??
I think perception of the economy lags actual economic performance by at least a year.
I think Nader would call that the unFair model
In Iowa, Dims are out-registering Pubbies with new voters 10-1.
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