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IMHO, the only polls that count are the "money polls," like TradeSports.com. Using TS.com odds as of 3:00 P.M yesterday, I did a total EV calculation by state using the latest closing odds the way we were taught to do it in B-School, and the way I’ve done projections for the banks and investment bankers ever since. Multiply the probability times the objective, and out comes the answer. Using this approach, it’s a fairly close EV race, but as of 3:00 p.m. yesterday, GW’s probability weighted EV count is 281.98, based on TS.com odds.

I also ran the numbers with the EVs for the slam-dunk states, which I defined as states with >=90% or <=10%, and allocating 100% of the EVs one way or the other. It didn’t make any difference to speak of; GW’s EV count using this calculation rendered 281.42 EVs.

This wasn’t satisfactory to me from a sensitivity perspective, so I started narrowing the range to shove full vote counts into one candidate’s lap based on the best odds available.

80-20 = 282.87
70-30 = 280.64
60-40 = 285.83
55-45 = 293.08
50-50 = 295.00

Kerry’s EV count actually worsens as close states are assigned one way or the other, because GW has a number of states in which he is narrowly leading, and Kerry has no states in which he is narrowly leading. His leads are all substantial to enormous. This has implications on the popular vote count; I think we could quite likely see GW re-elected and lose the popular vote.

Using the 50-50 results, I then arbitrarily assigned to Kerry the states where Bush has a relatively small odds advantage:

Bush odds less than or equal to 55: IA, NH, revised EV count = 284

Bush odds less than or equal to 60: Add WI, revised EV count = 274

Bush odds less than or equal to 65: Add FL, revised EV count = 247, GW loses.

So, the key states, in order of risk, are presently Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Florida. Based on the odds, that’s where I would be spending my time and effort. The rest of the states are so far out of the running one way or the other, it’s just not worth the effort to influence them. Even though it is less risky of a state versus IA, NH, and WI, Florida, as was the case last time, is the decisive state. Starting from any of the probability weighted scenarios set forth above Florida can take GW down all by itself.

I assume the market is picking up the possibility of vote fraud; but, who knows what effect that might have. Bush’s Ohio contract is trading at 66, which make it, Florida, trading at 61, and Wisconsin, trading at 64, the greatest opportunities for Democrat vote fraud. It would take a lot of fraud to swing these two states, but if I were a ‘rat fraudster, those are the two states where I would be concentrating.

It’s interesting that you can’t really do the analysis in reverse, because Bush has only one contract trading in the 35-50 range, New Mexico, which is trading at 35. PA is trading at 34, and Minnesota at 33. Oregon and Washington both appear hopeless. I don’t see any real possibilities of pleasant surprises for GW based on the present odds.

Over all, however, GW is the odds on favorite to win a majority of the electoral votes. As far as the "market" is concerned, Florida is safe, and with Florida GW wins.