Posted on 10/04/2004 8:23:56 PM PDT by crushelits
For the last several weeks, I have questioned how Gallup can put out polls with registered and likely voter samples that contained large GOP biases unsupported by recent electoral history. For example, the Gallup national polls of early and late September were based on samples that contained 40% and then 43% GOP respondents respectively. Gallup says they don’t weight their samples by party ID but rather by census/demographic factors, because they believe there are large swings in how voters self-identify themselves in the weeks leading up to the election. Other pollsters such as John Zogby feel that party self-identification isn’t as volatile as Gallup believes, and do weight their samples for party ID, with the result that the race ends up being much closer than Gallup and others portray.
Well yesterday, Gallup released its latest national poll carried by USA Today and CNN. According to the latest poll, Gallup shows the race tied at 49% amongst likely voters, and with Bush having a 49%-47% lead over Kerry amongst registered voters. This came after the most recent Gallup poll in late September amongst likely voters showed Bush with a 8% lead of 52%-44%, and a 53%-42% spread amongst registered voters. How is it possible that in the space of one week after one debate an 8% lead amongst likely voters has evaporated, and an 11% lead amongst registered voters has dwindled to 2%? Did the race shift that much because of one debate? If it did, this is the biggest story of the last several days.
After weeks of complaints that Gallup's samples had a GOP bias, note that their likely and registered voter results in yesterday's poll were based on party ID samples composed very closely along the lines of the 2000 exit poll turnout.
(Excerpt) Read more at theleftcoaster.com ...
Never forget, it's the 99% of lawyers who give the 1% their bad name.
Geez, how did that get on the wrong thread---sorry.
Well, I guess they could have been sand bagging all along with the idea to reverse it after the debate so kerry can pretend to be picking up steam. You know, the come back kid stuff.
I hate kerry's guts.
John
Only they had to adjust it back so far that they ended up with 2 Dims for every Republican surveyed to get the result desired.
This does not appear to be valid methodology to me: " based on party ID samples composed very closely along the lines of the 2000 exit poll turnout." as this is not 2000.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.