It boils down to this:
Before the debate registered voters in LA Times sample preferred Kerry by one point (48% to 47%) while after they preferred Kerry by two points (49% to 47%). This is the cause of euphoria on the left?
Question: How many of the registered voters in the sample will actually turn out to vote? Is it not true that only half of all registered voters bother to go to the polls on election day? What does this tell you about the validity of polls that rely on registered voters?
I predict Bush by an average of 5% among likely voters in Monday's polls.
-T
"I predict Bush by an average of 5% among likely voters in Monday's polls."
I hope you are right. All the spin after the polls will probably hurt Bush, I fear.