Posted on 10/02/2004 7:28:16 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Cynthia Moore — single mother, moderate Democrat — is the living embodiment of one of Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites)'s biggest challenges in the presidential race. There are things she doesn't like about President Bush (news - web sites), she says, but the president will get her vote on Nov. 2 because she thinks he'll do a better job of protecting her two daughters.
"Terrorism is something that scares me," says Moore, 34, of Watkins Glen, N.Y. "I like the security of knowing that if I was to get on a plane with my little girls, we would be a lot safer." Kerry's strong performance in the first presidential debate did him no good with Moore — her mind made up, she didn't even watch.
Moore is just one face behind polling numbers showing that Bush has made big strides among female voters in recent weeks. The Pew Research Center, for example, showed Bush and Kerry running about even among women in a poll taken Sept. 22-26, before the first of three presidential debates, compared with a 10-point advantage for Kerry in August.
Both campaigns are polling furiously this weekend to see how the first debate — in which terrorism and the war in Iraq (news - web sites) were front and center — might have changed things.
Democracy Corps, a group led by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and strategist James Carville, said its survey of 1,318 likely voters who watched the debate showed that Kerry's favorable ratings rose by 15 points among college-educated women and 11 points among older women, two groups that had moved away from him since the Republican convention.
All sides agree that Kerry's election prospects are doomed if he doesn't regain ground with female voters, who tend to make up their minds later than men.
"It's just simply this: In order for Kerry to win, he's got to carry women," says Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew center.
Democratic pollster Doug Schoen, not affiliated with any campaign, sets the bar even higher: "If he doesn't win women by about 10 points, he will not be elected president."
Recent presidential elections have displayed a "gender gap" in which women, who make up about 52 percent of the electorate, lean more Democratic than do men. In 1996, President Clinton (news - web sites) beat Bob Dole by 16 points among women and broke even among men as he easily won re-election. In the neck-and-neck 2000 vote, Al Gore (news - web sites) had an 11-point advantage over Bush among female voters while men favored Bush by about the same margin.
This time, the gender gap still exists, but the whole scale seems to have shifted in Bush's favor in recent weeks, in part simply because Kerry did more poorly across the board. An AP-Ipsos poll taken Sept. 20-22, for example, showed men favoring Bush by a 57-40 margin while women were about evenly split.
But the numbers also have given rise to speculation about a new bloc of voters known as "security moms," loosely defined as white, married women with children whose leanings in the race are tied to their concern about the impact of terrorism on their families.
Are these akin to the sought-after "soccer moms" of 1996, whose support for Democrats helped secure a second term for Clinton?
"I hate the cutesey terms, but to a great extent that's exactly what they are," says Republican pollster Ed Goeas. "You have these security moms who are concerned about the war on terror, the war on Iraq and see George W. Bush as the answer."
Evidence of women's concern about terrorism is sprinkled throughout recent polling data, although men also attach substantial importance to the issue.
Pew, for example, found that 79 percent of women rated concern about terrorism as a top priority, compared with 72 percent of men. The center also found that women showed far greater interest than men in last month's siege at a school in Beslan, Russia, in which more than 330 people were killed, nearly half of them children.
Kohut says women have been feeling "cross pressured" in the current campaign — thinking Bush would do a better job than Kerry on terrorism but favoring Kerry on the economy and health care. Men split similarly, but by margins more favorable to Bush.
The fact that women's support for Kerry has bounced around in recent polls shows there's still time for him to reclaim lost ground, says Kohut. Women account for up to two-thirds of undecided voters, according to Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
And there are skeptics who think the whole notion of "security moms" is overblown. Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg says married white women tend to be Republicans to begin with rather than swing voters. Kerry's real problem, she says, is that he's been "underperforming" among other, Democratic-leaning women who haven't been hearing much about the issues that matter to them most, such as health care and the economy.
"The good news for Kerry is that these are the first people to come back," says Greenberg, adding that the debates give Kerry a good chance to reach these women with an unfiltered message.
Carry them where?
Hopefully not to the bedroom . . . that'd be the last place I'd want!
Well He'll have a long wait if he thinks this gal is going to vote for him.
Kerry's got as many chins as he has conflicting positions!Saggy old fool!
They certainly were with Clinton. :)
I'll be crying in my pillow every night just thinking about that. Why are all the good one's all bought up already?
He saw a camera and a photo op. I wonder what it would be like to be a in a family where your Dad saw you as nothing more than a prop. No wonder his first wife got out.
I can picture Kerry carrying his wife in a straight jacket.
I love the faintly disparaging term, "security mom," which seems to imply that there is something trivial in women's desire to think of their children's safety before all else.
Are we having fun yet? :-]
This is it, the homestretch,,,, finally. whew!
I look forward to Cheney paddling little Johnnie Oct 5th.
I hope millions tune in. lol ;-)
FO,
I have considered my earlier position concerning the Kerry Canine Avatar. I have come to the conclusion that my initial assessment was short sighted and rash. Your picture has much in it's favor. The French Poodle's expression shows the aristocrat's haughty insouciance. I can see this French Poodle, sitting in the heiress's lap, looking out the window of the private jet as they fly over the red states, pitying the pathetic sod-busters slaving away in our menial existence. The glasses are no doubt rosy, enabling French Poodle and patrician alike to see the world in a pleasant pinkish hue, a world where terrorists fear and obey the law, where the UN spends more energy preventing genocide than making profit on the backs of Iraqi children. And the beautiful colored coiffure, expensive (only the best for the heiress's pet) yet tasteful and trendy. The multi-colors represent the refined mind's refusal to think in the simple terms of the vulgar, unwashed masses; nothing is simply black and white for French Poodle or man (terrorism, Islamofacism, beheadings, good v. evil). These are complex issues requiring convoluted logic to decipher. And therein lies the problem. How can any picture capture the multifaceted personality of French Poodle or his politician doppleganger. Can any single image capture the complexity of either Poodle or man, beings with many, many moods and metaphorical faces, a different opinion for each of them? I think not. If only there was some film, perhaps 8mm, of the Poodle in action. Think of the the 8mm home movies of the French Poodle's primate cousin, wandering through burned out Vietnamese villages. Ah, to see the Poodle in all it's glory in this fashion. Alas, it is not to be. Therefore, it is only proper that I proffer this, my humble apology. This picture does indeed represent, as best as is possible, the spirit and sublime dignity that is jfk.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.