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DRUDGE: NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE (Registered voters, not likely voters polled)
Drudge ^ | 10/02/04 | DRUDGE REPORT

Posted on 10/02/2004 1:45:56 PM PDT by tsmith130

Edited on 10/02/2004 2:53:28 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

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To: MNJohnnie

You're right! We've got to stop being so timid and scared. Buck up and get tough. We all knew this wasn't gonna be easy. I hope Kerry's people believe this poll. We all know what an arrogant, egotistical, @#$%&* he is. The more smug he feels, the more the true Kerry will come out. I thought Kerry was quite guarded the other night, and even then he let things like 'global test' slip. He'll be more careless this next go around. Also since Bush has now had time to sift through all the Kerry mumbo gumbo from the other night, he'll be far more prepared with his responses. I know that this next debate will focus on domestic issues, but Bush has some great ideas, and has always been consistent with this. Kerry has nothing but the overused, rehashed, canned comeback of 'tax cuts for the wealthy' crap! The format will also be more appealling. Bush's team knew that formal debate format was Bushes weakest. That's probably why they allowed it to be first. If this poll feels like a set back, then let us just view it as a reminder to stay on our toes.


521 posted on 10/02/2004 3:39:16 PM PDT by Conservative Texan Mom
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To: OhGeorgia; All

Relax Freepers. Bush is still ahead by a good margin, this debate and the remaining will have little effect.

The latest Newsweek poll is at variance with the other polls released thus far (other polls indicate that those polled believe that Kerry won the debate, but still have Bush ahead with little change in voter preferences).

Gallup, Princeton, et.al. might say that the numbers of Republicans and Democrats included in the survey varying with surveys has no affect (due to variance in what those polled consider themselves), but don't believe it. That’s one of the reasons why the various polls vary 5- 6% with each other. The huge change in the Republican/Democrat ratio alone accounts for the apparent dramatic Newsweek poll numbers shift:

Newsweek Poll

Reg. Voter Subgroup

10/2/04

9/11/04

Republicans

345

391

Democrats

364

300

Rep/Dem Ratio

0.95

1.30

 

The Data:

-------

Newsweek Poll First Presidential Debate Princeton Survey Research Associates International

Final Topline Results (10/2/04)

Totals

Bush/Cheney 45

Kerry Edwards 47

Nader/Camejo 2

N = 1,013 Registered Voters

Margin of error: plus or minus 4

Interviewing dates: September 30-October 2, 2004 (interviewing on 9/30 limited to the Pacific and Mountain time zones after the presidential debate concluded)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS: 1,144 Total adults (plus or minus 3)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 1,013 Total Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

481 Men (plus or minus 5)

532 Women (plus or minus 5)

345 Republicans (plus or minus 6)

364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)

278 Independents (plus or minus 7)

Source:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=

----------

Newsweek Poll Post-Labor Day Princeton Survey Research Associates International Final Topline Results (9/11/04)

Totals

Bush/Cheney 49

Kerry Edwards 43

Nader/Camejo 2

N = 1,003 Registered Voters

Margin of error: plus or minus 4

Interviewing dates: September 9-10, 2004

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS: 1,166 Total adults (plus or minus 3)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 1,003 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

391 Republicans (plus or minus 6)

300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)

270 Independents (plus or minus 7)

481 Men (plus or minus 5)

 Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040911/nysa006_1.html

522 posted on 10/02/2004 3:39:25 PM PDT by Enlightiator
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To: small voice in the wilderness
Please don't sully this forum with good news. The doomed villagers have their torches lit, and there's no turning back!

Did you read the posts on the debate thread?
Absolute panic and hysteria.
523 posted on 10/02/2004 3:39:38 PM PDT by MaryFromMichigan (We childproofed our home, but they are still getting in)
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To: Mo1

That's not what they're saying. They could only poll in those areas after right after the debate because it was before 9:00 PM there. I'm sure they made the sample more correct in geographically diversity the following day. Otherwise, the poll would be a joke.

The total doom and gloom out of this place sometimes over certain pointless things and then the overecstatic joy over other certain pointless things is really funny sometimes. But it makes me not want to post here. Y'all need to have thicker skin.


524 posted on 10/02/2004 3:39:53 PM PDT by Sam Spade
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To: tsmith130

Dick Morris was on O'Reilly directly after the debate and said President Bush's handlers need to make him do his homework as what Kerry will say in debates is predictable and he needs to have more energy as well. He said the next debate will be on enemy territory (domestic issues) so that is not good. But he is a smart man and able to rise to the occassion when he sees he must (as he did with McCain). Pat Caddell said Kerry gave President Bush many chances to blow him out of the water but he feels his handlers advised him to go soft because of the women voters he would need.


525 posted on 10/02/2004 3:39:58 PM PDT by sheikdetailfeather
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To: Enlightiator

Beat me to it, I was just gonna do that. Nice work, it is a perfect illustration of how the media manufactures momentum by polls.


526 posted on 10/02/2004 3:40:47 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Ask not what you can do for your country, ask the country what it will do for you!)
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To: Magic Fingers
"The infamous Dick Morris blames Bush's handlers...saying they convinced GWB not to be too harsh on Kerry so he wouldn't alienate voters (especially women voters)."

Too bad Bush's handlers didn't convince him to lose the whiney defensive tone of voice.

527 posted on 10/02/2004 3:40:52 PM PDT by Godebert
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To: lowteksh
The poll says they interviewed 391 Republicans, 300 Democrats and 270 independents.

I don't think these numbers are right

528 posted on 10/02/2004 3:41:21 PM PDT by gilliam
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To: tsmith130; lavrenti
Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush)

This has me doubting the reliability of this whole poll.

529 posted on 10/02/2004 3:41:24 PM PDT by NYC GOP Chick (Here by the sea and sand, nothing ever goes as planned)
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To: 45Auto
These people [Newsweak and all the rest] are working with the DNC to get Kerry in the White House - they will stop at nothing to accomplish that end.

I totally agree. CBS proved that just a few weeks ago and we've already forgotten that.

530 posted on 10/02/2004 3:41:47 PM PDT by valleygal
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Comment #531 Removed by Moderator

To: Enlightiator

yea, shows the problems with this poll.


532 posted on 10/02/2004 3:43:01 PM PDT by gilliam
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To: kingattax

BS meter, LOL, very funny!


533 posted on 10/02/2004 3:43:13 PM PDT by valleygal
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To: demlosers

Face it, Bush is nothing but a dumb, spoiled, arrogant shit.
A landslide electoral loss is guaranteed. I myself plan to vote for Kerry.


534 posted on 10/02/2004 3:44:08 PM PDT by gabby hayes
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To: jwalsh07
Beat me to it, I was just gonna do that. Nice work, it is a perfect illustration of how the media manufactures momentum by polls.

I'm glad you saw it too! This happens all the time, voter swings, numbers of Reps/Dems varies, in Gallup and the rest. This is the biggest swing I have seen though, Newsweek's Princeton poll is doing something erroneous from a statistical point of view.

535 posted on 10/02/2004 3:44:29 PM PDT by Enlightiator
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To: gabby hayes

are you testing the moderators or what?


536 posted on 10/02/2004 3:44:44 PM PDT by gilliam
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To: small voice in the wilderness

LMAO! THAT was funny!


537 posted on 10/02/2004 3:44:59 PM PDT by tsmith130 ("Some folks look at me and see a certain swagger, which in Texas is called "walking."" - GWB)
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To: COEXERJ145

wonderful


538 posted on 10/02/2004 3:45:04 PM PDT by knak
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To: gabby hayes

GO Away!!!!!!


539 posted on 10/02/2004 3:45:50 PM PDT by Conservative Texan Mom
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To: Tooters

cool. thanks for the laugh.


540 posted on 10/02/2004 3:46:05 PM PDT by processing please hold
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