[Steven W.]

I believe a local Senate race like this one follows the dictate that when the incumbent is below 50% he's doomed.

[plushaye]

"I believe a local Senate race like this one follows the dictate that when the incumbent is below 50% he's doomed."

You're correct theoretically but the polling is unable to poll a vital democratic base - the reservation Indians. So they are always the "x" factor that could throw the race to the incumbent. It also can't count in the vote fraud factor. Thune needs a larger cushion of decided voters to offset these factors.