For the short version, the IEM, or Iowa Electronic Market, is an academic-run, real-money futures market. Among various issue classes traded, several revolve around political races. Participants buy or sell shares based on the victory of either of the two candidates. A share purchase at a given price will return $1.00 in the event of that cabdidate's victory, nothing in the event of that candidate's loss. The higher the share price, the lower the return, and thus the higher the probability of that particular result. There is a lot more to it, and there are variations that are traded. Click the link in the lead post to visit the IEM site and read up on it.
Here goes. This futures market will pay $1.00 to each correct bettor on the Bush-Kerry race. At this point, you only have to spend $.35 to win a buck on Kerry and you have to pony-up $.65 to get a buck if Bush wins. These markets have proven to be extremely accurate in the past, both during the campaigns and in picking the final winner in the closing days of the campaign.
Iowa Electronic Markets
http://news.google.com/news?q=Iowa+Electronic+Markets+&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&safe=off&sa=N&tab=nn&oi=newsr
People bet on the outcome of the election. They poll by their dollars.
Bush is ahead.
also check tradesport.com
or momaw nadons weekly post.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1228090/posts
Another bet your money on the winner. These "polls" are like stock market bets. They are new so I don't know what the record is.