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President Bush will get more of the Jewish vote in 2004 than he did in 2000, but Senator Kerry will win the Jewish vote in a landslide.
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The delta is all that matters. When the last election was a tie, any positive change has to help.
With the massive scale of vote fraud taking place this election, Bush needs more than "any positive..." to win.
If it isn't a landslide, Kerry will win.
I concur with your view. A small shift in the Jewish vote will help in battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan.