Frankly, I think the action on the CINO/Communion question taken by several of the Bishops has had an impact. The actions have told some folks that this is REALLY serious stuff.
A swing of 20% in the Catholic vote (from 60% FOR Clinton to 40% FOR Kerry) is a significant move and will hurt him.
And Kerry's having trouble with the black vote. They have problems relating to windsurfers while their jobs are going to China.
It goes on...