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Move On: Full Page Ad in NYT Slamming Gallup
NY Times | Sept 28 | MoveOn.org

Posted on 09/28/2004 1:34:36 PM PDT by jern

The ad text:

WHY DOES AMERICA’S TOP POLLSTER KEEP GETTING IT WRONG?

If John Kerry believed in the Gallup poll, he might as well give up. A couple of weeks ago,a highly publicized Gallup poll of “likely voters” showed President Bush with a staggering 14-point lead.

But wait a minute. Seven other polls of likely voters were released that same week. On average, they showed Bush with just a three-point lead. No one else came close to Gallup’s figures. And this isn’t the first time the prestigious Gallup survey has been out on a limb with pro-Bush findings.

What’s going on here? It’s not exactly that Gallup’s cooking the books. Rather, they are refusing to fix a longstanding problem with their likely voter methodology.

Simply put, Gallup’s methodology has predicted lately that Republican turnout on Election Day is likely to exceed Democrats’ by six to eight percentage point. But exit polls show otherwise: in each of the last two Presidential elections, Democratic turnout exceeded Republican by four to five points. That discrepancy alone can account for nearly all of Bush’s phantom 14-point lead.

This is more than just a numbers game. Poll results profoundly affect a campaign’s news coverage as well as the public’s perception of the candidates.

Two media outlets, CNN and USA Today, bear special responsibility for this problem. They pay for many of Gallup’s surveys, in exchange for the right to add their names to the polls and trumpet the results first. They wind up acting as unquestioning promotional partners, rather than as critical journalists. The public would be better served if journalists asked some tough questions, beginning with the Gallup Organization, which has been asked to select the audience for the Bush-Kerry “town meeting” debate on October 8.

George Gallup Jr., son of the poll’s founder, was the longtime head of the company and now directs its non-profit research center. Why hasn’t he pushed for an update of the company’s likely voter modeling, which his own father pioneered in the 1950s?

Gallup, who is a devout evangelical Christian, has been quoted as calling his polling “a kind of ministry.” And a few months ago, he said “the most profound purpose of polls is to see how people are responding to God.”

We thought the purpose is to faithfully and factually report public opinion.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: napalminthemorning
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To: USA_Soccer

To quote one of my favorite lines from the movie, "Gone With The Wind", Clark Gable as Rhett Butler to Scarlett in the burning city of Atlanta ...


"Panic is such a pretty sight."


21 posted on 09/28/2004 1:39:58 PM PDT by Mr. Jazzy (Kerry broke the faith, pure and simple.)
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To: traderrob6

I can't answer your question. I generally don't follow the polls.


22 posted on 09/28/2004 1:40:43 PM PDT by EggsAckley (..........nobody knows how to lose a game like the Niners............)
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To: jern
Democratic voter fraud and other shennanigans "turnout" exceeded Republican by four to five points.

I wonder if they'd be so concerned if Kerry were up by 5-8 points?

23 posted on 09/28/2004 1:41:02 PM PDT by Lou L
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LOL!!
"Move on's" denial mode!
Gallup had consistantly pulled in kerry's favor, but even THEY can't hide the real truth anymore!


24 posted on 09/28/2004 1:41:35 PM PDT by Legion04
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To: jern

MoveOn is just mad that that Bush won the 2000 Elections. What a bunch of whiny crybabies!


25 posted on 09/28/2004 1:41:44 PM PDT by Ptarmigan (Proud rabbit hater and killer)
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To: IamConservative

"Turn those machines back on!!!.....Turn those machines back on!!!!" Don Ameche in "Trading Places"...
ROTFLMAO!!!


26 posted on 09/28/2004 1:42:24 PM PDT by abb (Because News Reporting is too important to be left to the Journalists.)
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To: jern

What a weird-ass thing to do.... What is their point in attacking the Gallup poll? Whack-jobs, yes, but they must think they have a good reason for attacking Gallup....


27 posted on 09/28/2004 1:42:41 PM PDT by r9etb
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To: jern

***FROM GALLUP: Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 758 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior.***

Now, if I'm reading this right, and I'd like to think I am, Gallup doesn't simply determine for themselves who they think is going to vote and who is not. Nobody would see that as fair or factual. They actually ASK the respondents about the likelihood they will be voting in November.


28 posted on 09/28/2004 1:42:50 PM PDT by Zeppelin
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To: untenured
Full-page ads in the NYT are not cheap. That they would spend that kind of money on such a peripheral issue suggests to me that they have tons of it to spend. I wonder where it comes from?

George Soros is their Sugar Daddy.

29 posted on 09/28/2004 1:43:40 PM PDT by pbear8 (Dan and Martha, in jail together)
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To: jern
Gallup, who is a devout evangelical Christian, has been quoted as calling his polling “a kind of ministry.”

I find this anti-religion bigotry as offensive as I find someone using the "n"-bomb.

30 posted on 09/28/2004 1:43:50 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator (I am poster #48)
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To: jern

This is by far the most desperate move I have ever seen. These folks are freaking out. What they don't realize is that all they are doing is bringing more attention to the poll #s. Smart move dumbasses.


31 posted on 09/28/2004 1:45:49 PM PDT by mlbford2 ("What self respecting man wears Spandex?" -- Zell Miller)
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To: jern

Looks like MoveOn has started their election meltdown. Don't like the polls? Just take out an ad in the paper denouncing the pollsters! Yea, that's the ticket. That'll change some more minds. /sarcasm


32 posted on 09/28/2004 1:46:36 PM PDT by PilloryHillary (John Kerry LIED http://www.johnfkerrysucks.com)
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To: abb

"Turn those machines back on!!!.....Turn those machines back on!!!!" Don Ameche in "Trading Places"...
ROTFLMAO!!!


Mortimer turn those machines back on.


33 posted on 09/28/2004 1:47:20 PM PDT by mlbford2 ("What self respecting man wears Spandex?" -- Zell Miller)
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To: abb

"Don Ameche in "Trading Places"..."

Precisely the mental image I had when I wrote that. This same den of kooks blamed the Hurricanes on Bush last week.

It is sad indeed that these kooks think people are this stupid (based upon the people they associate with.)


34 posted on 09/28/2004 1:48:15 PM PDT by IamConservative (A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything.)
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To: jern
Sounds to me like the losers are getting their excuses in line. You know, the mean-spirited and totally unfair SwiftBoat Vet ads that originated of course from the Bush camp.

Now you've got the pollsters colluding against Kerry. And the media's, CBS notwithstanding, failure to expose Bush's faults. They are all in Rove's pocket, you know.

The Bush Regime has its hands in everything. It's no wonder Kerry's campaign is in tatters. The Republican Smear Machine has made it impossible for the Dems candidate to have a fair shake.

Losers!

35 posted on 09/28/2004 1:48:27 PM PDT by GSWarrior
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To: Rebelbase

I love the way that guy says "HA ha"!


36 posted on 09/28/2004 1:48:37 PM PDT by uncitizen (This is war, not a garden party!)
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To: jern

The polling services had been oversampling Democrats and nobody had an issue with it.

The only poll that counts is the one on election day.


37 posted on 09/28/2004 1:49:26 PM PDT by weegee (What's the provenance, Kenneth? Where did the forged SeeBS memo come from?)
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To: mlbford2

"Mortimer, your brother"


38 posted on 09/28/2004 1:49:31 PM PDT by Freemyland
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To: untenured; EggsAckley; Lance Romance; KQQL; Dales


Is what MoveOn claiming correct? That Gallup is basing their polls on Rep. turnout of 40%? If that is the case, I can see where MoveOn would have a point.


39 posted on 09/28/2004 1:49:43 PM PDT by jern (The only poll that this site think is accurate, is the poll with W. in the lead.)
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To: IamConservative
I think this is part of a coordinated effort to cast doubt on the outcome of the election. We have heard about the Orangeman organizing his legal teams across the country to file suits after the election. Gore is still running around whining about the election that was stolen from him. Black rat groups are going with the disenfranchisement thing again and Michael Moore is still an idiot. Now you will see how polling data that was pro- Bush helped influence the election. You know, people saw W ahead and decided to back the front runner.
40 posted on 09/28/2004 1:49:52 PM PDT by satchmodog9 (Murder and weather are our only news)
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