Michigan now a dead heat in new poll

PR Newswire ^

[grellis]

More Bush signs than JF'nK signs here in Rochester Hills.

Most welcome news about my old stomping grounds (Woooo-hoo, go Falcons, yeeeeeeah)!

[grellis]

Macomb ping

[MNJohnnie]

Minnesota has been in the Bush column for a while. ALL the polls show that EXCEPT the Minneapolis Star Tribune (State Democrat Paper) which shows Kerry up by 9. Problem is the Star Tribune has overstated the Democrat vote here in Minnesota by 5 points in the last 5 elections. If you control for that bias, even the Star Tribune poll changes to show a Bush lead in Minnesota by 2 points. Minnesota is in play yet the Kerry camp is not campaigning here or advertising. Why, because they think the state is in their column and are basing that assumption on a demonstrably flawed poll. The Democrat's problem is they have not kept up with the changing face of Minnesota politics. Since 2000 we have elected a Republican Gov., a solidly Republican Legislative House, HALF our Congressional Delegation is Republican (including the Senator we elected in 2002) our State Senate is only Democrat Controlled by 1 vote and all but one of our state wide offices is held by a Republican. The Republican Gov Tim Pawlenty is enormously popular and the margin by which Rep Senator Norm Colman WON Minnesota in 2002 is LARGER then the margin Bush LOST Minnesota in 2000! Bush campaigned in the last week of 2000 for Colman here in Minnesota so it was his coattails, as much as Colman's personal popularity, that boasted Coleman to a win in 2002.

Minnesota is in play and Kerry can NOT win without Minnesota since it is a 20 point shift in the Electoral Collage (10 point loss in "Sure Kerry" state plus a 10 point gain for Bush) So assuming the race is as close as 2000, and Minnesota goes Bush?

[SunkenCiv]

I'd love to see Bush win Michigan, but here in conservative West Michigan, a yard sign survey / bumpersticker survey appears to run about 2:1 in favor of Kerry. The G(arbage W)R(apper) Press is doing its usual slams on conservatives and Republicans, and the anti-Bush fervor on campus seems to be running high. Not to mention the unionized industrial east side of the state.

On the other hand, in an election it isn't the squeaky wheel that gets the grease, or the quacking duck that gets shot (at least not in the US), but the empty can that makes the most noise. ;') And Granholm (the Dim gov) has alienated smokers, state employees, and everyone who didn't support her. :'D She's gone in 2006 if we all do our job here.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[rintense]

Bush needs to visit the UP one more time. If so, I firmly believe he will lock it up.

[grellis]

...if a union boss tells you to vote for a Democrat you vote for a Democrat.

While that has been true in all recent elections, I think the rank and file UAW members are going to swing for Bush in surprising numbers. Lansing is a big GM town and most of the union members I know are Bush supporters. They are more concerned about muslim thugs than they are about union thugs.

I think a lot of democrat mitten denizens are just plain fed up with being referred to as "Michiganistanis."

[DouglasKC]

Bush lost Michigan to Gore by 117,000 votes (51.2% to 46.1%). Gore won Wayne County (Detroit and its environs) by 227,000 votes. If the GOP can crack down on voter fraud in Detroit, he would win easily.

Yup, and Bush was up until Wayne county came in. Wayne just sat there and waited...and waited...and waited...until all the other counties came in and then they knew how many votes they needed to manufacture.

[SunkenCiv]

I hope all of you are right. The unique situation here is, Florida and Michigan have a lot of, uh, double-dipping. Voters file to vote absentee here in Michigan, and vote as residents if they can in Florida. I don't know anyone who claims to do this, only that I've heard talk of this, so slap me across the face with a dead walking catfish if it ain't true. I'd not be surprised to learn this practice goes on throughout midwestern states where a lot of seniors spend winters in Florida.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[quantim]

Bush needs to visit the UP one more time. If so, I firmly believe he will lock it up.

I just came back from my cottage in No. MI, nothing but Bush everywhere.  And I mean some BIG signs!

Doubtful Bush will go to the smaller rural areas, my sense he is going to take it right to 'em by going to the heart of Macomb, Oakland, unlike Kerry who just plays hide and seek.

[AFA-Michigan]

American Family Association of Michigan, Michigan Family Forum, and Citizens for Traditional Values are supporting a "yes" vote on Prop 1, because it will require a local and/or statewide vote of the people before ANY new gambling enterprises can be established. The tribal casinos are opposed to Prop 1 because they don't want new facilities dependennt on a vote of the local population. The already-established Detroit casinos support Prop 1 because it will minimize new competition (i.e., less expansion of gambling to places where it does not now exist). We support it for the same reason: less likelihood of proliferation of gambling, which secular scientific studies show is a net economic drain on communities because of increased crime and dependence on government social programs.

[Fredgoblu]

And Granholm (the Dim gov) has alienated smokers, state employees, and everyone who didn't support her.

Personally, I think she's alienated more of her own allies than her opponents. Of course, her allies vote Democrat regardless, so it doesn't matter that she ticked them off...they'll support her in 2006.

I voted against her, but I'll give her good marks for spreading the budget-balancing pain to everyone, instead of bowing to special interests. Unless we can find a strong Republican candidate in the next 2 years, I'm not so sure she's gone.

[SunkenCiv]

The tribal casinos are opposed to Prop 1 because they don't want new facilities dependennt on a vote of the local population.

The tribal casinos are completely in favor of Prop 1, because tribal casinos are not restricted by it -- they fall under federal jurisdiction. Prop 1 will choke out non-tribal casinos, which would otherwise compete with the likes of Little River. Who do you think pays for all those ads? The anti-gambling Carrie A. Nations in the suburbs? :')

The already-established Detroit casinos support Prop 1 because it will minimize new competition.

Agreed.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[Fredgoblu]

I read something recently that said there were ~45,000 New Yorkers registered in both NY and Florida. Anybody else see the article?

[SunkenCiv]

The only card she has left to play, well, two cards -- she's a woman, so she'll get a lot of crossover voting. That would be easy to counteract (nominate a woman). The second card is, the economy should be in very good shape by then, and she'll take credit for it, even though she blamed GWB's administration when things were not so good. IOW, she's just another lying Democrat.

If Bush takes Michigan in 2004, believe that there will be a strong candidate against Granholm, as well as more interest from the RNC.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[Graymatter]

Thanks for the intelligent information. I'm not from around there, so everything you wrote is 100% gain for me. :) I hope you're right but it's hard to shake the stereotype of Mondaloids voting Dem even when the candidate promises to raise their taxes.

[Fredgoblu]

My mistake...there are 46,000 New Yorkers registered in Florida...in a 6:1 Democrat:Republican ratio! Let's hope somebody cross references the voting rolls this year.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1199060/posts

[SunkenCiv]

The seniors are being targeted by Kerry with lies about the Medicare premium increase -- 17 per cent, which accompanies the increased coverage, and was passed by the Congress, not dictated by the President. I don't believe most will fall for it.

Seniors used to be heavily WWII vets. Those numbers are fading as WWII veterans pass away. We're seeing a greater percentage (due to such attrition) of Korean War veterans, who don't necessarily harbor warm thoughts for Harry Truman's political party, even though they may remember him fondly. WWII vets served under FDR (for the most part). By 2011 the Baby Boomers born in 1946 (conceived in 1945; the peak year was 1953 if memory serves) will start to hit 65, with the biggest surge circa 2018. That's the Vietnam generation.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks! We need a federal standard for registration and for ballot requirements and design.

[Lazamataz]

Michigan now a dead heat in new poll

LOL. Kerry is toast, man.

[jbarkley]

I've been doing hundreds of phone calls for the campaign in Macomb County and the Bush supporters are fired up. There have been volunteers in record numbers around here, and the people I talk to on the phone are very enthusiastic and can't wait to get to the polls.

The yard signs and bumper stickers are flying out the door. I know the Macomb Victory Center didn't get their supply of yard signs until last week, so that could be why so many have been cropping up lately.