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This flap over Alawi is a figure of the end game for both sides.

Kerry has read the polls and concluded he cannot win after the Swift Boat Veterans had stripped him naked and revealed him not to be a hero but an opportunist. Nothing he attempted predicated upon this false image would be accepted by the American people. Hence, Kerry has moved to new ground. If he is to be labeled as a anti war candidate, he might as well harvest the left wing support there and motivate the base.

In addition, Kerry knows he can count on the media to carry him as long as this election is Vietnam redux. So Kerry must paint Iraq as a quagmire and the press will amplify the message.

So, Kerry attacks Alawi as part of a hopeless cause. Bush counterattacks that Kerry is undermining the war. Thanks to the Swifties Bush can credibly make this argument without serious backlash.

As long as the debate is not whether Iraq is a quagmire but whether Kerry is undermining the war, or even whether Bush is unfair in the criticism, Kerry loses. This will be the pattern for the next six weeks with Kerry looking to break out of this stalemate before it is too late. Expect him to try something dramatic to make this case in the first debate which is the only debate about foreign policy. If Kerry cannot change the dynamic in the first debate, he has no other real opportunity and must pray for an intervening event, like Madrid, which will determine the election.

Look also for the press to try to bust Kerry out of this box, probably with the quagmire argument. They thought they had another prison scandal with the Guard duty business but that might have been their last chance.