Actually, I strongly believe that the Dems are sitting on a pile of similiar forgeries and fakes they were planning on dribbling out until election day.
I can't believe that with Kerry tanking they won't try to use the other documents they've created.
Oh, and as for the Dem's October Surprise in particular, I would have to guess that they will try and bring up the "Bush got a woman pregnant and paid for her to have an abortion" myth.
In other words, they are going to invoke all of the Michael Moore-style hysteria that moderates hate. I cannot see something like that resonating, but who knows.
I think that they are having trouble digging up legitimate dirt on the president. So many of the skeletons have already been released - the advantage of incumbency. And I am quite certain that there is such a visceral hatred for Bush that every motivated unemployed lefty has been feverisly scraping for something that would stick. This will be interesting.
The war will be getting uglier, for obvious reasons, but I think that most people want us to finish it and believe that Kerry would have us pulling out sooner rather than later with our tails tucked firmly between our legs.