You forgot to say about Israel's 3 German built Dolphin class SSKs which are known to be armed with a land attack cruise missile,the Popeye Turbo.Moreover,Israel's new dual seat F-16Is have larget fuel tanks & was acquired specifically for targetting Iran,Libya or if need be Pakistan.I would agree with you that any Israeli operation against Iran would be far more messy than 1981 & would require a triad of special forces,air strikes & cruise missiles to have a decent chance of success,you cannot rule out the Israelis launching one-from the looks of it,Washington does'nt seem interested.So may as well,go it alone.
My own guess would be that the Israelis will not have to go it alone. It's one of those operations that must succeed; my own guess is that we will ensure its success.