All of the races that seem tossups are trending pubbie. Most are due to a late primary and an unknown R candidate running against a well-known D candidate.
Barnes is saying:
As for the other races, I predict:
- OK: R->R (too Republican a state to go to the dark side in a presidential election year, Carson looks tough but has a mountain to climb)
- NC: D->R (again, Republican state, polls trending to Burr, why vote for Bowles this time?)
- FL: R->R? (the hurricanes will require Martinez to work very hard and be delicate about foisting politics in the cleanup era, but a Cuban Republican in FL is the perfect storm -- as it were, I'm also suspicious of FL polls since 2002)
- LA: D->D (those runoff elections were built to elect Democrats and they still work)
- CO: R->R (come on, who doesn't want to have Coors rallies -- over 21 only -- every six years? another late/contentious primary)
- AK: R->R (irate pubbies had their chance to have their pound of flesh from Lisa in the primary and she won easily, the fact is she was probably the best one for the job when she was unlucky enough to have her dad as gov.)
- SD: D->D (sorry, Daschle will get more votes in SD than Thune, even if his vote total exceeds the population of South Dakota)
Regarding WA, Nader on the ballot sunk it for Nethercutt. Besides the unappeasable 3rd party types who kicked out Gorton deciding that Nethercutt's exceeding his promised self-imposed term limit by one makes him unworthy of their virginity-like vote, Nader being on the ballot guarantees that there will be high enough liberal turnout despite the hurt it would put on Kerry's chances. Patty bin Murray will be re-elected.