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Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 49

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2004

...Dangerous core of Hurricane Jeanne expected to reach the Florida
East Coast tonight...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the Florida East Coast from
Florida City northward to St. Augustine...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry
Islands...Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New
Providence. Preparations to protect life and property in the
Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
from north of St. Augustine northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
along the West Coast of Florida to the Ochlockonee River.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now effect for the West Coast of Florida
from East Cape Sable northward to the Ochlockonee River.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Englewood to the Suwannee
River.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Florida City
around the southern end of the Florida Peninsula to East Cape Sable
including Florida Bay...and the Florida Keys north of the Seven
Mile Bridge.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the central
Bahamas has been discontinued.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Jeanne was located near
latitude 27.1 north...longitude 78.8 west or about 105 miles
east-southeast of Vero Beach Florida.

Jeanne has been moving between the west and west-northwest at 14 mph
during the past few hours. A gradual turn to the northwest is
expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of
Jeanne will continue near or over the remainder of the northwestern
Bahamas during the next few hours...and will reach the Florida East
Coast tonight. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland
as much as 100 miles along the track of Jeanne.

Jeanne is dangerous category three hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson
hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph and higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall in
Florida. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely to occur
on high rise buildings.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles. Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama
Island just reported a wind gust to 97 mph.

Latest minimum pressure central pressure reported by a NOAA
hurricane hunter plane 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...are still occurring near
the center of Jeanne on the north side of Grand Bahama Island and
on the west side of the abaco islands. Storm surge flooding of 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west side of
the other islands of the Bahamas in the Hurricane Warning area.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
along the Florida East Coast. A storm surge of up to 5 feet above
the present water level is likely to occur mainly on the east side
of Lake Okeechobee.

Tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible in the warned area
along the Florida West Coast....possible reaching 3 to 6 feet in
areas of onshore flow north of Tampa Bay.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher amounts
...Are possible along the track of Jeanne over the northwestern
Bahamas and Florida.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the east Florida
Peninsula tonight.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...27.1 N... 78.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM EDT and 9 PM EDT followed by the next complete
advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Avila

Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 49

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2004

there has been no significant change in the cloud pattern. Jeane
continues to have a well defined eye surrounded by a convective
band wrapping around the system. Strongest wind continues to be the
113 knots reported by a recon earlier today. A minimum pressure of
950 mb was just reported by a NOAA hurricane hunter plane. Initial
intensity is kept at 100 knots but may need to be updated when a
new data from a reconnaissance plane become available. Additional
strengthening is possible and category four intensity at landfall
in Florida cannot be ruled out. A gradual weakening should begin
after landfall. The intensity forecast follows SHIPS inland decay
model....dships.
The hurricane has been wobbling between the west and west-northwest
at 12 knots during the past few hours. However...Jeanne should
begin to move toward the west-northwest and then northwest around
the high tonight. This motion would bring the core of Jeanne to the
East Coast of Florida within the warning around midnight.
Thereafter...the hurricane should continue inland across the
Florida Peninsula in agreement with most of the guidance. The
portion of the official forecast from now to landfall and over
Florida continues to be very close to the global model consensus
and the FSU superensemble.
In five days...Jeanne is expected to be a strong extratropical storm
in the North Atlantic.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/2100z 27.1n 78.8w 100 kt
12hr VT 26/0600z 27.7n 80.6w 110 kt
24hr VT 26/1800z 28.7n 82.3w 55 kt...inland
36hr VT 27/0600z 30.2n 83.3w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 27/1800z 32.5n 83.0w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 28/1800z 37.5n 76.0w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 29/1800z 42.5n 65.0w 30 kt...over water
120hr VT 30/1800z 46.5n 52.0w 50 kt...extratropical