It's an election and this is simply an opinion piece.
My gut feeling at this stage is that Howard will be returned, but it's nowhere near a sure thing. The election could go Labor's way.
The problem is we have compulsory voting here. That has some advantages in referendums which are held to determine whether our constitution should change, because in those cases, people tend to really focus on the specific issue discussed and most people make a fairly informed decision.
But when it comes to normal general elections, it really complicates things - because around 20% of the electorate (my estimate) don't make an informed decision - and that group is large enough to determine the results. And while these people tend to support the status quo, there's no real way of knowing how they will jump.
If any single issue captures their attention just before the election, they can change their votes dramatically.
The big issues here for this election are probably national security, the economy, healthcare, and education.
The Howard government has national security and the economy pretty much sewn up - so Labor is throwing policy after policy at healthcare and education in the hope that one of their policies will attract public imagination.
So far, I don't think they've succeeded - but they could.
I don't think Howard's temper will have much impact. It might if Latham was a calm collected person himself - but he isn't. He's rather renowned for his outbursts.
What you said. All of it spot on.