Posted on 09/23/2004 1:40:05 PM PDT by crushkerry
In the coming weeks, we will profile some of the hotly contested House races across America. Many of these races will play an important role in deciding who the next President of the United States will be, so localized has the targeting become in the national race. Today, we cover New Mexico’s First Congressional seat held by Republican Heather Wilson. She faces Democrat Richard Romero in a rematch from 2002.
New Mexico’s First Congressional District includes the city of Albuquerque and some of its suburbs. According to Michael Barone in his Almanac of American Politics 2004, “the future and the past come together in its single metropolis, Albuquerque. Its Spanish and Indian past is memorialized in its name … but its future is decidedly high-tech.”
It also has a really big military base within its boundaries, so Heather Wilson, the first woman veteran to serve in the United States Congress is a good fit. Wilson served in the Air Force and is identified chiefly by her work on the House Armed Services Committee. Her military background and her persona as a moderate Republican has allowed her to maintain her seat in this district, despite the fact Al Gore won it narrowly in 2000.
Wilson faces Democrat State Senator Richard Romero in a rematch of 2002. Wilson beat Romero 55% to 45% in their last contest. Romero is a powerful force in the legislature, having been nominated by his peers to serve as president pro-tem of the Senate.
But no one seems to know why he’s got so much juice. His voting record is fairly cut-and-past liberal Democrat. And the only items of distinction in his rap sheet is a penchant for skipping important votes and taking costly junkets paid for by big corporations or the taxpayers of New Mexico. Romero lost in 2002 largely because the National Republican Congressional Committee aggressively highlighted these shortcomings in Romero’s record in a series of now-illegal Issue Advocacy ads fueled by so called “soft money.”
Early polling in this hotly contested race seemed to favor Romero. Worries over the situation in Iraq and the economy weighed down President George W. Bush’s job approval rating.
Last July, one GOP pollster familiar with the campaign told us, “the political environment in NM-01 is bleak. The majority of voters feel the country is off on the wrong track and half disapprove of President Bush’s job performance. Further, the majority of the electorate has a favorable view of John Kerry and is even voting for him on the ballot. And voters are about split on the issue of weather or not the Iraq war was worth fighting.”
But that was in July. Before the Swift Boat Vets knocked John Kerry off his high horse and before the GOP convention helped President Bush hone his message and take control of the campaign.
Today, Republican supporters of Heather Wilson are smiling a little brighter.
From a recent poll obtained by crushkerry.com, we learn that the Republican now leads the Democrat on the generic Congressional ballot. And George W. Bush has completely flipped his Fav/Unfav right side up. John Kerry, on the other hand has a slightly higher Unfavorable rating than Favorable.
Even better, Heather Wilson now has a strong Fav/Unfav ratio, the kind of ratio members of Congress have when they are about to be reelected. Which would happen if the election were held today by a substantial margin.
What makes this recent development doubly fun is that both the Romero campaign and the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee have run ads with a very deliberate and obviously market-tested message:
Heather Wilson votes 94% of the time with the leaders of her own part. Therefore, she’s just too partisan for NM-01.
But the good folks of Albuquerque simply aren’t buying it. (For her part, Wilson has pounded on Romero again for missed votes and junkets.)
The corks aren’t popping at Wilson for Congress just yet, though. “This is a perennial swing district for us. We always have to watch Heather Wilson because there’s just a butt load of Democrats in NM-01,” one GOP operative close to the campaign told us. “And both sides are going to spend a lot of money there before Election Day. It’s still very much in play.”
Like we said, this seat is vitally important for the President’s reelection effort. Al Gore won New Mexico by 365 votes in 2000. A strong showing by Wilson and Bush on Election Day could put turn this Blue state Red.
Ping
Heather Wilson Ping
We'll be watching them, but we're not going to be doing the in-depth stuff like we are on the House races, mainly because we're involved in the House races.
Have you done KY-3 yet?
No, this was our first one.
Female R Rep? Pics please.
We tend to have good looking women.
Worked on Heather's special back in 98. The woman has changed and the power has swelled her ego an unmanageable size. Last election, I didn't even pull the lever over her name... would hate to see Romero take 01, but the State needs a change...
I've heard that Heather Wilson is a possible candidate against Sen. Jeff Bingaman in 2006. Somehow, Bingaman has been able to convince NM voters he's some kind of moderate.
In the Sep. 22 (today) Louisville Courier-Journal, a poll was published regarding the Anne Northrup/Tony Miller House race. It shows that Northrup has regained the lead, 47% to 40% Unfortunately, articles from the Courier-Journal can't be published due to a copywright complaint.
I expect the landslide wins by Bush and Bunning and plus the gay marriage amendment vote to insulate Northup from the RATS. Also there is a gay activist by the same name, Anne Northup. The liberals might be stupid enough to think our Anne Northup is the gay activist. LOL!
Overal, its good that our vulnerable House Seats are in good shape. Having Nancy Pelosi as US House Speaker is even worse than President French Kerry.
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