[AlexPKeaton04]

If Bush can grab either NJ or PA he won't need FL anymore as either of those 2 states will balance out FL. At worst Bush will get 275EV and at best 325EV I don't see him winning much more than that, and after going over the electoral map over and over again based upon the polls and can't see how Bush could get any less than 275EV. I give Skerry a max of 257EV at best. There are a few websites where you can use interactive maps where you pick which state is going to who.

[TJC]

331 - 100% of 2000 + MN,NM,IA,PA and WI
353 add OR and NJ
After that it's a stretch.

[LS]

There's still a lot of time for things to shift---remember, we're talking just 3-4 point swings give us Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and a 5-point swing brings in New Jersey and Washington.

By "a lot of time," I honestly think this swings only one way---in Bush's favor. I'm convinced that barring a total unforeseen meltdown of the Bush campaign, he wins. The question now is whether Kerry can keep it competitive or whether thelemmings start dropping off the cliff, taking some senate seats with them.