Actually, you are not far off from ARG's numbers then. They show F'n with a one point lead in FL. If you flip that state to W, their numbers come very close to yours.
http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html
Contrary to many breathless freepers I seriously doubt MD or CA are going to end up in Bush's pocket. A 285 Bush win to Kerry's 253 is my guesstimate.