Even Ronald Reagan stumbled in the debates in his reelection campaign; no sitting president has handled them without stumbling except x42.But there will be three debates, so Bush will have ample opportunity to recover from whatever stumble he may encounter in the first one. In the long run - and probably even in the short run - Kerry's arrogance and Bush's sincerity will come across.
The first debate is about national security. This is President Bush strongest turf. Kerry will be crushed in this debate.