Iraq is the weak point for the President's re-election, both because the WMD stockpiles didn't turn up and because there's so much going on on-the-ground that is impossible to control. I had some genuine concern last night, reading about "Kerry's new strategy on Iraq" because there's weakness there to be exploited by the Democrats. After hearing Kerry's speech today, however, my reaction was "If that's the best they can do, its not much".
He completely contradicted himself and several of his previous contradictory positions on Iraq, confirming that all the "flip-flop" accusations are based in fact, he looked like he was completely pandering to his anti-war base, his "pull out at all costs" strategy is a carbon copy replay of his Vietnam era beliefs, and his four point "plan" for Iraq offered nothing new at all and certainly is no panacea for the problems in Iraq.
It was just a poor, poor showing. A lot of build-up and bluster but very little at the heart of it (not unlike the man himself, I should add). So if that's the best he's got, then I'm convinced that any chance Kerry has of winning the election is based solely on circumstance: the only real chance he has is to hope that Iraq completely melts down and that he can capitalize on public fears and disillusionment.
And even under that circumstance, I still wonder if enough of the "persuadables" would look at a guy who is *that* conflicted inside his own head and vote for him. I am just astonished that Kerry gave a speech like that, that so played into every negative perception of his as a weak-willed flip-flopping guy with no sense of himself. I just couldn't believe it.
I completely and totally disagree. I know it is conventional wisdom that Iraq is a weakness in the President's campaign, but I think it is a strength. The more Kerry talks about Iraq, the more he exposes his own inconsistencies on the subject, no, his serious character flaws. Moreover, foreign policy and the War are the President's strong suits. Bush is more than happy to have Iraq be the subject. All the damage that Iraq was going to do to the President, was done in the early spring.
I can't recall which poll had this, but since the transfer of authority to the Iraqi's, most Americans see Iraq in a different light. They no longer see us as staying there with no end. It is also clear that right or wrong, the President appears to be restraining further military action in Iraq until after the election. This has kept casualties down and helped to aid in the perception that Iraq is moving ahead.
John Kerry's speech today amounted to nothing, ziltch. Kerry has no plan and could not articulate one if he had too. Basically, Kerry believes that he can call "do over" and stake a new new new new new new new new new new position on Iraq and that NOBODY will realize that his latest position is at complete and total odds with his previous positions. This is arrogance staring us in the face. Kerry and the Dems continue to labor under the illusion that the Old Media will bury Kerry's former positions and statements. Based upon the DNC continuing to run the Favored Son adds, it is clear that they did not get the memo on Rathergate, namely, the Old Media may not be dead, but it is not the power it once was. There is a new power, and it is US!!
The only people who Kerry's speech may appeal to are the people who are already voting for him.