Posted on 09/20/2004 4:13:32 PM PDT by Nascardude
Bush is good in the town hall style format. As long as they can keep the dem plants to a minimum, I expect him to outshine Kerry, Big-Time.
Gore won Oregon, NM, Iowa and WI by VERY narrow margins in 2000. Not surprised to see these states going our way.
Its true, but I wonder if there is some sort of hidden strategery going on here or if the campaign has something figured out on Kerry or lastly their internals are not quite as rosy as they would hope.
It really doesn't look good for Kerry right now.
Almost all of his Blue states are battlegrounds.
All of Bush's red states are pretty much solidifying in Bush's favor.
Only CO, NH, and WV can be considered tossups. All have shown movement to Bush (although Rasmussen says otherwise about NH).
FL can't really be polled because of the hurricane.
His "first tier" states (PA, IA, WI, NM) are moving towards the Bush camp.
WI can probably safely be termed leaning Bush at this point in time.
The "second tier" of battleground states (MN, OR, NJ) are tossups.
WA is close.
The only battleground state without movement is MI.
States that were solid Kerry (NY, VT, MD, IL, CA) are at best strong and more likely only leading towards Kerry. MD is tied in a SUSA poll out today.
The trend is definately towards Bush. Hopefully, the momentum can continue to build.
I'm doing all I can here in PA. I hope we can overcome the "graveyard voters" in Philly and Pittsburgh.
We just see more and more encouraging news, eh? There's hope for our state - there's hope!!!
Bush nearly won Oregon in 2000. Came a few thousand votes short.
Let's not forget Flint and the Michael Moore effect .
I believe Bush lost NM by less than 500. Bush lost Iowa by a little over 4000 and WI by a little bit more than that. Hence, a 15,000 vote swing could have brought those three states to our column.
<P.But know Kerry is having to shore up his liberal base in NY. Must suck being him.
Congratulation to the CINO Gov. Grandholm. Dem gov send the state to the bottom. Glad I moved to NH. (She's a Canuck by the way)
Looks good, although I hate to seen pen go back into the kerry column.
The best news is it seems that ohio is going out of play and into solid Bush territory. (knock on wood)
If we can snag penn, it would be a huge boost. It concerns me, though, that mason/dixon has Bush down. Lets keep the faith.
Oregon was nearly tied in 2000. Gore won by 6,000 votes.
And how pray tell, are they going to keep the dem plants to a minimum? I am very upset with Jim Baker, I expected better from him.
I like your first two suggestions. Pray the latter isn't true.
Here are some internals from the PA. Very interesting. This could mean that Kerry's support is very, very weak.
---
Posted on Mon, Sep. 20, 2004
Pennsylvania
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from Sept. 14 through Sept. 16, 2004. A total of 624 registered Pennsylvania voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION
Do you recognize the name ______?
(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?
RECOGNIZE
FAVORABLE RECOGNIZE
UNFAVORABLE RECOGNIZE
NEUTRAL DON'T
RECOGNIZE
George W. Bush 45% 42% 13% -
John Kerry 40% 35% 25% -
QUESTION: If the 2004 presidential election were held today, would you vote for:
Democratic ticket of John Kerry & John Edwards 45%
Republican ticket of George W. Bush & Dick Cheney 44%
Independent ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo 1%
Another party ticket -
Undecided (NOT READ) 10%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush's overall job performance as President?
Approve 48%
Disapprove 45%
Undecided 7%
(KERRY SUPPORTERS ONLY n=281)
QUESTION: Do you support John Kerry because you like him very much, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?
Like him 40%
Like him w/reservations 28%
Dislike other candidates 31%
Other/Not Sure (NOT READ) 1%
(BUSH SUPPORTERS ONLY n=274)
QUESTION: Do you support George W. Bush because you like him very much, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?
Like him 67%
Like him w/reservations 26%
Dislike other candidates 7%
Other/Not Sure (NOT READ) -
NM will be close again, probably Kerry by just enough manufactured votes. Bush would have to have twice the lead he does now to win.
The President may feel he can do a good job on Kerry where he completely buries Kerry.
This will really PO my liberal brother who lives in Portland. Hehehe
Like most voters this year, it's either you like Bush or you don't. Kerry is uninspiring.
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