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From the Sabre.com...

Breakthrough Win? Let's Count the Ways...
by John Galinsky

I wouldn't call this the biggest game in Virginia football history. That distinction still belongs to the Georgia Tech game in 1990 because it came later in the season and the Cavaliers had more to lose - and did. But if the 'Hoos beat Florida State on Saturday, you can make a strong argument that it would be the biggest win in UVa history. That's because there are at least four ways in which a victory would represent a significant breakthrough for Virginia's program. Call them the Florida Factor, the Road Rules, the Ranking Respect and the 'Hoo Hunt. Let's go through each one of them and show how a triumph in Tallahassee would help UVa take its place among the national elite in college football.

4) Florida Factor

If you can't win Florida, you can't win the nation. Just ask Al Gore. Of course, it hasn't taken a Supreme Court ruling to keep the Wahoos winless in the Sunshine State. They have played 12 games in Florida, returning home a loser each time, and on almost every occasion they were soundly trounced.

The combined score of those 12 games: Opponents 524, Virginia 191.
Average score: Opponent 44, Virginia 16.

Whew. Part of the reason for that dominance has been the fact that the Cavs have had to face so many superior Seminole teams at Doak Campbell. FSU has won six of the seven matchups there by at least three touchdowns (and the other by one TD). The 'Hoos also have lost games to perennial powers Miami and Florida on their home turf. But that doesn't explain everything. It doesn't explain why Virginia lost two bowl games to Illinois in Florida, including a 63-21 shellacking in the 1999 Micronpc.com Bowl. It doesn't adequately explain two other embarrassing bowl routs - 48-14 to Oklahoma in the 1991 Gator, and 31-13 to Boston College in the 1993 Carquest. Those weren't hanging chads; they were hanging Cavs. Anyone want a recount? Perhaps the Florida sun saps UVa's strength. Remarkably, the 'Hoos have allowed at least 31 points in each of the 12 games while never scoring more than 24. Maybe someone is spiking their orange juice. Whatever it is, Virginia has done more shameful things in Florida than any frat boy on spring break in Daytona. If the Cavs went to Disneyworld, Mickey and Goofy would kick their butts.

Winning Saturday would erase, or at least blot out, all of that ugly Florida history. In this case, the difference between 1-12 and 0-13 would be like the difference between South Beach and South Dakota.

3) Road Rules

Away from their home crowd, the Cavs have not had any success against elite teams. It's not just Florida. The Cavaliers have never fared well against good teams - really, really good teams - on their home fields. And we mean never. In 22 road games against opponents ranked in the top 10, Virginia is 0-22. Overall, UVa is 11-50-1 in road games at ranked teams. Twice the 'Hoos have beaten the No. 12 team on its home turf - at West Virginia in 1984 and at Penn State in 1989. Since then, they haven't even come close to springing a big road upset, unless you count a 31-24 loss at No. 3 FSU in 1996.

Granted, the road game stat is a little misleading. For much of its history, Virginia had trouble beating anybody, anywhere. Road games against top-10 teams were an automatic “L”. Those opponents - Clemson most often - usually were out of UVa's league. But even when the Cavs have been good, they haven't been good enough to beat an elite team on the road. In 1947 under Art Guepe, No. 16 Virginia lost at No. 10 North Carolina, 40-7. In 1993 under George Welsh, No. 15 Virginia lost at No. 1 Florida State, 40-14. In 1996 under Welsh, as already noted, No. 14 Virginia lost at No. 3 Florida State, 31-24. In 1998 under Welsh, No. 12 Virginia lost at No. 6 Florida State, 45-14.

Under Groh, this trend hasn't changed. The 'Hoos have gone 1-5 against ranked teams on the road, with the only win at No. 19 Clemson in 2001. There have been many memorable home victories over the years, most notably the upset of No. 2 Florida State in 1995, but pulling off that feat on the road would mark a major breakthrough for the program.

2) Ranking Respect

Let's face it. Most college football fans don't pay close attention to the polls. For instance, did you know that Southern Miss is No. 24, Boise State is No. 21 and Utah is No. 11? (You did? Perhaps you need another hobby.) Until a team gets in the top 10, maybe the top 5, not many folks take notice. Once you're near the top, however, national attention comes your way. Any team in the top 10 right now has to be considered a contender for the national championship. When fans and media are projecting bowl matchups and BCS bids, the top teams become part of the national conversation. Remember when Virginia was No. 1 for three weeks in 1990? The program arguably received more attention during that brief time period than it has for the other 114-plus years of its existence. The national media swarmed Charlottesville the week of the Georgia Tech game. As a third-year student, I gave informal tours of the grounds to several visiting sportswriters, including Jean Jeansonne of New York Newsday and Ivan Maisel, then with the Dallas Morning News. During the game, the press box at Scott Stadium was stuffed with influential sportswriters and broadcasters from throughout the country. They disappeared immediately after the 41-38 loss to Georgia Tech and, for the most part, they haven't been back.

That's because Virginia dropped out of the top 5 following the loss and hasn't reached that level again. Groh's rebuilding project has garnered some notice from national media, but it's largely been a regional story, occurring under the radar. A win Saturday puts the program squarely back into the national spotlight. It may not push the Cavs into the top 5, but it sure keeps them at no worse than No. 6 - the highest ranking in Virginia history apart from October of 1990 - with a chance to move up in coming weeks.

Rankings don't matter? Nonsense. Rankings mean attention. Rankings mean exposure. Rankings mean respect.

1) The 'Hoo Hunt

Groh hopes the 'Hoos are still "in the hunt" on November 1. This is the only aspect of Saturday's game that Groh admits to caring about - whether it keeps the 'Hoos in the hunt for the ACC championship, and by extension the national title. The short-term goal, Groh frequently says, is to get to Nov. 1 and still be in the hunt. For Virginia football, that hasn't happened very often. In fact, since the ACC was formed in 1954, the Cavs have reached Nov. 1 with a perfect record just once, in 1990. Every other year, they reached Halloween with at least one conference loss. But in '90, they were 7-0 in September and October, with the only tough game coming at home against No. 9 Clemson.

This season is similar in that Virginia will face just one ranked opponent before November - the No. 7 Seminoles. The difference is that it will occur on the road in one of the toughest places to play in America. If the Cavs lose, it won't be the end of the world, or even the end of a special season. Like in 1995, when they rallied from three pre-November losses to claim a share of the ACC title, the 2004 team could fall to FSU but still run the table and finish tied for first in the conference. That would be a great feat. But it wouldn't be historic. On Saturday, this team has a chance to make history. This is the kind of game that the 'Hoos have never won before in over a century of existence. Beat Florida State at Doak Campbell, beat a top-10 team on the road, win a game in Florida, and the program enters brand-new territory.

Question is, are they ready for the breakthrough?

WahooWah...MUD