With economic growth arising from both increase in savings and investments and earnings, 1 to 1 is not an unreasonable assumption for calculating a mere target tax rate to trend to.And I'm sure that was what you were thinking, it wasn't in any way a mistake.
I'm saying you don't know what you are doing when you calculate these fantasy tax reductions.
Just simple estimates for a given scenario based on the information available.
So your numbers were wrong.
Nothing wrong about them at all for the scope of their intent, as simple estimates and indicators of potential given the conditions stated, i.e. NRST targeting 18% rate with permanent Bush tax cuts, with the additional effect on rate of eliminating Social Security.
The numbers are quite adequate to the purpose of illustrating the obvious, reductions and elimination of government programs and the reductions of current tax law allow lower tax rates in a replacement NRST system.
AG: With economic growth arising from both increase in savings and investments and earnings, 1 to 1 is not an unreasonable assumption for calculating a mere target tax rate to trend to.
YN: And I'm sure that was what you were thinking, it wasn't in any way a mistake.
Of course that was what went in to the consideration of going with a simple 1 for 1 correspondance of reduction from elimination of a program, to proportionate reduction of tax rates. The indirect effects work in a direction to assure the 1 to 1 correspondance will yield a conservative target which is all I have any interest in providing.
If you want multi-decimalpoint prognostication of final numbers, go get a crystal ball. I don't require that to decide to chose between:
"A hand from Washington will be stretched out and placed upon every man's business; the eye of the federal inspector will be in every man's counting house....The law will of necessity have inquisical features, it will provide penalties, it will create complicated machinery. Under it men will be hauled into courts distant from their homes. Heavy fines imposed by distant and unfamiliar tribunals will constantly menace the tax payer. An army of federal inspectors, spies, and detectives will descend upon the state."
-- Virginian House Speaker Richard E. Byrd, 1910, predicting the consequences of an income tax.
And a single rate, single stage tax levied on use and consumption of retail products.