If Kerry is closing the gap somehow, can anybody point to the state in which he is gaining? Anyone? Anyone? National numbers have to come from somewhere unless you are just changing the way you are counting things.
Strategic Vision ( a right-leaning pollster) shows Kerry up 7 in MI, and up 4 in MN. This is consistent with Bush bounce dissipating.
I would guess that as of today, W is up by 2-4 %nationally, and by 4-5 in OH, MO, WV. The situation in FL is harder to evaluate. The rest doesn't matter - only these four states. Well, maybe CO as well.
I hope Bush wins, but I will be surprised if he gets 50% of the popular vote.