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Gee, guys, it's not like I WANT this to hurt Bush. I just think this is not doing him any good. Conventional wisdom says it is, but the rules are different for Republicans. It could turn out well, if it is shown the Democrats were behind this (which is likely to be the case but not likely to be proved), but I don't think you're going to see his poll numbers go up if it dominates the news. The Democrats who keep pimping this story, discounting the falsity of the documents in favor of the "real" story, are not as stupid as everyone thinks. They are trying to fire up their base ("Bush Lied!") and slam Bush's credibility among undecideds. This is free air time for them to restate over and over and over their stupid catechism on the subject, every day, every night, every channel. Do I think it will hurt Bush much? No, not much. But Kerry is avoiding scrutiny right now, even though he should be getting slammed on his ant-war activities in the 70s, while at the same time what would normally be old news about Bush is getting unprecedented attention. The poll I saw showed only 38% of the public think the documents are fake. That's only 12% more than those who think they're real and basically the percentage of Republicans in the population.

I'm sorry, I just don't think this is good for him. If the Democrat's fingerprints show up (which they won't in a way that isn't deniable, even though it will be obvious to us), that would be different. But this is not what I would want to be dominating the discussions of my candidacy, if I were him. Just my opinion. If a poll comes out next week that shows Bush growing his lead, I'll be happy--thrilled, even--to be wrong. I don't think that will be the case. But if this BS didn't happen, I think we would see him consolidating his gains as Kerry floundered. Bush isn't on message now, his people aren't pounding Kerry's legislative record or flip-flops. Like a beleaguered fighter up against the ropes, Kerry was ready to be put away. But now he's getting a breather, a chance to redefine himself as people forget the impressions that were starting to form that were helping to rocket Bush into the lead. Kerry's still got problems, I just think the conventional wisdom that this hurts him and helps Bush is wrong.

But now he's getting a breather, a chance to redefine himself as people

Forgery row threatens to derail Kerry

Julian Borger in Washington
Thursday September 16, 2004
The Guardian

The problems dogging John Kerry's presidential campaign deepened yesterday as a row over the authenticity of
documents about George Bush's National Guard service took centre stage.

The Kerry campaign insists it had nothing to do with the documents, which contain derogatory remarks about Mr
Bush's National Guard service, apparently written by a superior officer in the early 1970s. But evidence that
they may be forgeries could damage Mr Kerry's challenge when he is trailing in the polls and striving to regain
his footing.

Forensic scrutiny of the typefaces, spacing and verbal style of the National Guard memos could help shield Mr
Bush against a concerted Democratic attack on his Vietnam era record.

"The 'forgeries' have become the story, not the story itself," David Corn, the Washington editor of the Nation
magazine, said.

The timing of the appearance of the documents has led some Democrats to wonder if they had been put into circulation
to discredit the anti-Bush effort. Fingers have begun to point - as they often do among Democrats - at Karl Rove,
the president's electoral mastermind.

"If this is Rove, it is his greatest masterpiece," a Kerry campaign adviser said yesterday.

Attack on Bush military record
From correspondents in Washington
September 15, 2004
US Democrats stepped up their attack today on President George W. Bush's military service, while a "tell-all"
tabloid biography assailing his family values hit the stores as an instant bestseller.

...
Today, the Democrats came back with a new campaign and video aimed at highlighting "unanswered questions"
regarding Mr Bush's stint with the Texas Air National Guard three decades ago, a statement said.
The effort, dubbed "Operation: Fortunate Son", seeks to shift the focus onto what the Democrats call Mr Bush's use
of family connections to get a cushy National Guard position and avoid duty in Vietnam.

There is the tie-in. Kerry will suffer.