Posted on 09/14/2004 3:17:10 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
Speculation about a possible Russian military strike is rife in Georgia, in the aftermath of the Beslan school tragedy and the Kremlin's threats to go after "terrorists".
From 1 October no Georgian aircraft will be allowed to land in Russia - the explanation from Moscow being that Georgian airlines have not been paying their airport dues.
But to Tbilisi this is another sign of what many officials say is unprecedented pressure from Russia following the Beslan siege.
Georgians are concerned that Moscow will try to link the school siege in Beslan to Georgia and will carry out its threat of preventive strikes in Georgia, which shares borders with Russia's troubled republics of Ingushetia, Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya.
Statements from Moscow are fuelling the fears.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said he does not exclude links between Georgia's breakaway province of South Ossetia and the events in Beslan, which is only 40 kilometres (25 miles) from the Georgian border.
Simmering tensions
Russian media allege that one of the hostage-takers from Beslan is hiding in the Kodori Gorge, in Georgia's other breakaway province - Abkhazia.
Moscow also claims that there are still Chechen "terrorists" in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, on the border with Chechnya.
Pankisi, once a haven for Chechen guerrillas - and some even allege al-Qaeda fighters - has been bombed by Russia in the past.
But Georgia insists that its borders along the snow-capped Caucasus range are now fully under control. The question, according to Deputy Defence Minister David Sikharulidze, is whether Russia will choose to believe this.
"Our border guards are on high alert and we absolutely rule out infiltration of Chechen fighters into Georgia," Mr Sikharulidze says.
"But we know that unfortunately Russia will try to use this school tragedy to try and pursue its own agenda in the Caucasus."
This agenda, Mr Sikharulidze adds, includes destabilising Georgia.
For years, Georgians believe, Russia has done just that by supporting separatist regimes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Saakashvili defiant
Just last week Russia infuriated Tbilisi by resuming a train service between Moscow and Sukhumi, the capital of Abkhazia.
Analysts believe that Moscow is punishing Georgia for its pro-Western course.
Georgia's aspiration to join Nato, and the presence of US marines, who are training and equipping the Georgian army in Moscow's backyard, are all thorns in Russia's side.
Moscow says President Mikhail Saakashvili's vows to reunite Georgia are stirring up trouble on Russia's borders.
Earlier this summer, Mr Saakashvili sent extra troops into South Ossetia, claiming that it was a haven for smugglers.
The move sparked heavy fighting, which escalated until Georgia withdrew its troops and handed control back to a joint peacekeeping contingent under Russian command.
The Georgian president describes the peacekeepers as "piece-keepers - there to keep the pieces of the old empire and not the actual peace".
In South Ossetia at least, the Soviet empire, and with it the Cold War, does seem to live on.
Soviet nostalgia
Just a month ago, as Georgian and Ossetian forces exchanged fire and shells fell on the capital Tskhinvali, Russia's General Sviatoslav Nabdzorov was drinking vodka in one of Tskhinvali's restaurants.
His eyes filled with tears as he raised his glass to the "Great Soviet Union".
General Nabdzorov's comment about the conflict was much briefer then his long and nostalgic toast.
"Only Russia can sort out this conflict," he said, "not America!"
And so the fear in Tbilisi is that the Beslan school siege will give Russia a free hand to "sort out" the conflicts in the Caucasus, including those in Georgia.
And while President Saakashvili says he hopes to defuse tensions with Russia at a security summit in Kazakhstan this week, he too is flexing his muscles.
Last Sunday, Georgian interior ministry troops launched massive exercises by the South Ossetian border.
"The enemy is only 20 kilometres away," said Georgian Interior Minister Irakli Okruashvili as he saluted his troops. His finger pointed to the north.
It should be scaring the heck out of most of Europe.
Yeah, I got that impression too...
>It should be scaring the heck out of most of Europe.
I thought most of Europe is America's enemy now?
Which is why I am concerned over the relationship between Putin, Germany and France. France and Germany are both fairly disgruntled over the course the EU has taken; they had intended that they be the power within the EU and all nations simply tow their line. It hasn't worked out that way.
Now we see France (who disassociated itself from the NATO defense from the USSR mission in the late 50's) and Germany where many of the political leaders and much of the population yearn for the good old days of East Germany.
I am concerned over a power play between those three nations to bring the rest of Europe to heel...one way or the other.
I MIGHT not go that far, but most of Europe isn't our friend.
"If you really want to get scared though, do a Google on 'Putin' and 'Soviet'."
I have and you're right. But there is nothing we can do about it except remain vigilant. Anything Putin does now he will justify by using the threat of terror as an excuse.
Cue ominous "Empire Strikes Back" music.
That's a very good analysis, really.
Putin's alliance with Germany and France is anti-EU, that's the point many people don't understand yet.
Though I don't see why it's wrong exactly. How being subservient to Brussels is actually better than to Paris, Berlin and Moscow?
It didn't fly.
Russia to US: We want our Empire back!
Yet another evidence that the EU is doomed. You can't run great power foreign policy by a committee.
And frankly, the sooner the EU disintegrates the better for all concerned.
bump
I have the ultimate evidence for you. I have a very good friend and neighbor from Milan, Italy. If you want to get him screaming in Italian and throwing his arms around just ask him about the olive crops back home.
Under EU rules, Italy has been forced to destroy much of their olive crop...and IMPORT GREEK OLIVE OIL.
I knew it was all over when Fabio told me that.
I wonder how long they'll survive.
Perhaps, five to ten years after Turkey joins...
Or until the make Ireland pour it's own ale down drains and orders them to import French ale.
With Russia having it's own war on terror.
you can be sure the ACLU won't be interferring,
the kid gloves will come off. Maybe they'll
put in some terror to the terrorists.
Well, Putin was KGB. When in doubt, people always fall back on what they are comfortable with. There seems to be a waxing nostalgia for the old days of communist order--inside Russia anyways.
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