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Geopolitical Diary: Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2004
STRATFOR ^ | September 14, 2004

Posted on 09/14/2004 4:57:20 AM PDT by Axion

Fallout has begun to really manifest itself from the Chechen massacre of Russian school children. Of real significance, it has caused the United States to redefine its views on the presence of Chechen guerrillas in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge. Of extraordinary significance, it has given Russian President Vladimir Putin the opportunity to propose radical changes to the constitution of Russia. Ultimately, the massacre seems to be substantially redefining the situation in and around Russia.

U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Richard Miles said Monday that Chechen militants may well be using the Pankisi Gorge as a refuge and resupply route into Chechnya. Miles' comments were immediately rejected by just about every Georgian official who could reach a reporter. The reason is obvious: Since Putin is obviously determined to do something drastic in Chechnya, Miles' assertion would seem to give the Russians just cause to intervene in Georgia. Since this is the Georgian's worst nightmare, Miles seemed to have invited a catastrophe involving an American ally.

There could be a couple of reasons for this move. To begin with, there is little doubt but that the Chechens are in the Gorge. The United States moved Special Forces and other personnel into Georgia several years ago to assist the Georgians in dealing with the problem, to preempt any Russian move into Georgia and to cement U.S. influence in the country. Nevertheless, no one has seriously believed that the effort could possibly have been completely effective, and Russian intelligence clearly knows that some Chechen operations continue to emanate from Georgia.

For Russia, as for the United States on Sept. 11, 2001, this is a seminal moment. What the Russians could tolerate before the Beslan attack is very different from what they can tolerate now. The Russians know there are Chechen guerrillas in the Gorge, and they know that U.S. intelligence knows that there are guerrillas there. If Washington were to continue to deny it by supporting the Georgian position, the Russians would have to reevaluate their entire relationship with the United States. U.S. officials claimed that the Sept. 11 attacks transcended all other issues in relations with Russia. It is quid pro quo time, and Miles had no alternative but to state the obvious.

But Miles' move was also clever in this sense. By admitting that there was a problem, Washington can also tell the Russians that the United States is prepared to take responsibility for cleaning out the Gorge, either with American forces or with Georgian forces. However reluctant Georgian leaders are to get involved in this, the United States has now given Tbilisi no choice. This decreases any rationale for Russian cross-border incursions, while increasing American power in Georgia. Obviously, this means that additional resources will have to go into Georgia, but that does not necessarily displease Washington.

What is going to startle Washington much more is Putin's proposal to restructure Russia's political structure. Putin has proposed a plan aimed at installing a "vertical" system of power to combat guerrilla attacks in Russia, by suggesting the introduction of nationwide, proportional parliamentary voting and the selection of regional governors through presidential nomination (their nominations would be ratified by regional parliaments).

The first proposal would essentially gridlock the Russian parliament. Proportional representation tends to increase the number of seats held by small parties and make it difficult to create single-party majorities. Israel is an example of proportional representation. In the Russian case, where there is already a strong president, the relative decline in effectiveness of Parliament would make the president the only functioning institution in the country. The proposal that the president should nominate regional governors with approval by local parliaments would, in effect, turn regional government over to Putin.

It is not clear to us why this would make Russia's battle against the Chechen guerrillas more effective. It is clear to us that Putin is using the crisis to massively increase his power. It is also clear that he is likely to succeed, in the superheated atmosphere of Russia today. We have long felt that Russia was going to move back toward a more centralized and authoritarian system, and that it was Putin's intention to take it there. Monday's announcement indicates that the move is under way.

Two things, therefore, are happening. First, the boundaries of the Russian sphere of influence are being clearly defined, along with U.S. responsibilities toward Russia if Washington plans to retain its own sphere of influence in what Russia calls its "near abroad." Second, internally, the flow of power back to Moscow and back to a strong leader has been accelerated by events in Chechnya. This does not shift the main trend line. However, it would appear that we are at the inflection point.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: beslan; caucasus; chechnya; geopolitics; georgia; globaljihad; putin; russia; stratfor

1 posted on 09/14/2004 4:57:20 AM PDT by Axion
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To: Axion

Very thoughtful and important article. This could involve another commitment of US troops in the near term, and big changes in Russia in the longer term. Makes you realize how superficially the Presidential race in this country is being treated. Did Bush show up for duty in Alabama 30 years ago?
I presume Kerry's position is "I served in Vietnam."


2 posted on 09/14/2004 5:29:11 AM PDT by Ken in Denver
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To: Axion
"It is not clear to us why this would make ....battle against the .... more effective. It is clear to us that ..... is using the crisis to massively increase his power. It is also clear that he is likely to succeed, in the superheated atmosphere of ... today. We have long felt that ... was going to move back toward a more centralized and authoritarian system, and that it was ... intention to take it there."

An all purpose template, just fill in the blanks with your favorite political leader.

Lord Acton, to the white courtesy phone!

3 posted on 09/14/2004 5:29:36 AM PDT by mens sana
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To: mens sana

You got any suggestions? Fill in the blanks just doesn't get it anymore.


4 posted on 09/14/2004 6:26:09 AM PDT by iopscusa (El Vaquero)
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To: Axion

Putin has achieved a massive power grab because of Beslan, the Chechen's seeking independence haven't achieved anything to advance their cause. Could Putin and his desire for power have teamed up with the Al Qaeda terrorists who desire a global jihad, since they are the only two groups that seem to have advanced their agendas due to the Beslan massacre?


5 posted on 09/14/2004 9:10:52 AM PDT by Libertarianize the GOP (Make all taxes truly voluntary)
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To: dueler88

Ping!


6 posted on 09/14/2004 12:20:48 PM PDT by Mr.Atos (http://mysandmen.blogspot.com)
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