EU Rebuff Would Affect Ties With Turkey: Turkish PM

A couple of precursors illuminate that one:

Northern Cyprus P.M.:
Transferring Gazimagusa Port
To E.U. Is Out Of Question
Anadolu Agency
8/16/2004
Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Talat of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC)... who returned to TRNC after meeting Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, denied Greek Cypriot press reports saying that Gazimagusa port would be transferred to the EU.
Turkey's E.U. Ambitions
Rely On Recognising Cyprus:
Cypriot F.M.
Agence France Presse
9/1/2004
"Everyone in Europe says it would be extremely difficult for Turkey to proceed with its (EU) application without having any ties whatsoever (with Nicosia) and also maintain a hostile stance against Cyprus," said Iacovou... responding to comments made by his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, who said Tuesday Ankara is considering steps to include Cyprus in a customs union between Turkey and the European Union, but that such a move would not amount to a recognition of the Greek Cypriot government.

Greece and Greek Cypriotes may be beyond the point of abandoning their dream of dominating the Turkish population of the northern part of Cyprus (TRNC), but the generation that tried to rub out the Turks won't live forever. For now, the EU will take that line, and it alone will be enough to keep Turkey out of the EU.

Look for the US to step in with a new trade deal (not with TRNC; although US financing of the proposed freshwater pipeline to Cyprus from the Turkish mainland would be beneficial to everyone, regardless of the shortterm political ramifications).

George W. Bush will win reelection by a margin of at least ten per cent.

Turkey's E.U. Ambitions
Rely On Recognising Cyprus:
Cypriot F.M.
Agence France Presse
9/1/2004
A last-ditch effort to reunify Cyprus' Greek and Turkish communities before EU accession failed in April when Greek Cypriots rejected a UN peace plan that Turkish Cypriots endorsed. Cyprus has been split since 1974 when Turkey occupied the north in response to a Greek Cypriot coup in Nicosia [more than ten years earlier] aimed at uniting the island with Greece.

The UN will get tired of these rejections, which will cause a disconnect between the UN and the EU. And over such a stupid ethnic issue...

George W. Bush will win reelection by a margin of at least ten per cent.

"Tall cold glass of reality thrown right in the face" ping, or perhaps "naked fear / pee-pants" ping.

German Socialists have hard words for Turkey
by Honor Mahony
March 21 2005
A leading Socialist MEP has warned that without further reform by Turkey and legal recognition by Ankara of Cyprus, there will be no opening of EU talks later this year.,, The German MEP also said that recent events in Turkey were a "cause for worry" citing the brutal crackdown by police earlier this month against demonstrators ahead of international women's day and then the harsh reaction by Ankara to EU criticism of the event... His words are especially remarkable as, to date, Socialist politicians, particularly from Germany, have been strong supporters of Turkey's entry into the European Union.

It was the Greek population, led by Makarios, who rejected (in the early 1960s) power-sharing (which is part of what socialists like to call "diversity"). In 2004, the Greek Cypriotes rejected the negotiated settlement of all issues at the ballot box. Cyprus is divided, has been for over thirty years. Saying it has to be unified is no different -- no different -- than saying Hispaniola has to be.

Of course, these German Socialists will back down on this, or risk splitting the gov't, a no-confidence vote, and a tumble from power. Or, the rest of the ruling coalition will see it the same way, and block Turkey from joining.

Chirac points to third way on Turkey
by Honor Mahony
Nov 11 2004
Speaking on Sunday in Marseilles, Mr Chirac said, "Either it works and Turkey joins with all our values. This will take 10 to 15 years" or on the other hand, he said "... Turkey cannot or will not make the necessary effort, then we will stop. There is a third hypothesis that in three to four years, things have progressed but there are still obstacles that we will not surmount. We will therefore need to find another solution, to create a sufficiently strong link for our ambitions for peace and co-operation but without integration into the EU", said the French President... Countries such as Austria and the Netherlands may favour moves in this direction. Mr Chirac's words are intended as a reassurance to French citizens - a majority of whom have doubts about Turkey joining the bloc.

That one is a "baffle them with BS" ping. The harder the US presses on Turkey into the EU, the more obvious it is that Europe is no ally of Ankara. The question becomes, will Turkey then turn to its not too neighborly neighbors? Or to its brutally repressed ethnic groups, at least one of which (the Kurds) wants an independent homeland? The French et al helped keep Turkey from helping the US with the liberation of Iraq, by dangling the prospect of EU membership (yet again) if it didn't help, and the prospect of outright rejection if it did. Talk about hitching your wagon to a star...

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