Posted on 09/12/2004 10:38:38 AM PDT by NYer
WASHINGTON (CNS) -- Not only are the candidates for president focusing their attention on a handful of "battleground" states, President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry are targeting specific groups there for attention, particularly Catholics.
The strategy may be working for Bush better than it is for Kerry, with Catholics polled by Zogby International in some of those states pulling away from the general public and saying they are more likely to vote for Bush.
Although in past decades Catholics were seen as a significant voting bloc, the conventional political wisdom has it that Catholics tend to vote about the same as people in similar demographic groups or economic circumstances.
So why did 60 percent of a sampling of Catholics in Minnesota say they were likely to vote for Bush, compared to 44 percent of the overall state voters who said they would re-elect the president? By comparison, 51 percent of all Minnesota voters polled said they plan to vote for Kerry, while 36 percent of Catholics said they would do so.
Those results of the phone survey of 725 Minnesota voters conducted between Aug. 28 and Sept. 3, and released Sept. 7, continued a trend that has evolved over the summer among Catholics in the state. About 25 percent of Minnesota residents are Catholic.
Zogby senior political writer Fritz Wenzel told Catholic News Service that the answer may lie in the attention brought to Kerry's abortion positions this summer. In places with strong pro-life networks such as Minnesota, that may be affecting how some Catholics vote, he thinks.
"In this political atmosphere, there are two key issues for Catholics," Wenzel said. "Concern about the legitimacy of the war in Iraq is being overridden by ongoing discomfort with Kerry's stand on abortion."
Kerry, a Catholic, has a record of voting against bills that would limit abortion and in favor of legislation to keep it less restricted. Bush supports abortion-limiting legislation and signed a ban on partial-birth abortions. Catholic teaching opposes abortion in all circumstances.
Wenzel said Zogby's bimonthly poll showed Catholic voters in some states began to split toward Bush in midsummer. That was soon after widespread news reports of statements by U.S. bishops over whether Catholic politicians whose actions in office contradict some church teachings should be permitted to receive Communion.
A separate August poll by the Pew Research Center and the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life found 72 percent of Catholics nationwide think it is inappropriate for bishops to deny Communion to politicians whose public actions on abortion and other life issues go against church teachings.
But Wenzel said, although Catholics may disagree with bishops who want to impose such a sanction on politicians, news on the topic brought to the forefront Kerry's position on life issues. And that is turning some Catholic voters into Bush supporters, he said.
"These comments (by bishops) have gotten huge play," he said.
"Denying Communion is a whole different issue than abortion, but it made people aware of (the candidates') positions," Wenzel said. "It's like a potato chip that's the conveyor for the salt."
Wenzel said he sees stronger support for Bush in states such as Minnesota where Catholics tend to be fairly conservative on moral issues. And the Republican president's campaign has done an effective job of playing to those interests, he said.
On the other hand, when Kerry tried to explain how he sees his beliefs as a Catholic as separate from his obligations as an elected representative, "he tried to nuance his explanation and I don't think people followed it," Wenzel said.
Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are also Catholic-heavy battleground states where Catholic voters are polling significantly more in favor of Bush than is the general population, according to the Zogby data. Here are the Sept. 7 report's figures:
-- Iowa: Overall -- Bush voters, 47 percent; Kerry voters, 51 percent. Catholics -- Bush voters, 56 percent; Kerry voters, 43 percent. About 18 percent of Iowans are Catholic.
-- Wisconsin: Overall -- Bush voters, 48 percent; Kerry voters, 50 percent. Catholics -- Bush voters, 56 percent; Kerry voters, 42 percent. About 31 percent of Wisconsin residents are Catholic.
-- New Hampshire: Overall -- Bush voters, 45 percent; Kerry voters, 50 percent. Catholics -- Bush voters, 53 percent; Kerry voters, 36 percent. Twenty-seven percent of the state's residents are Catholic.
-- Pennsylvania: Overall -- Bush voters, 47 percent; Kerry voters, 50 percent. Catholics -- Bush voters, 54 percent; Kerry voters, 44 percent. Pennsylvania's population is about 30 percent Catholic.
In most of the other swing states where Zogby polls regularly, Catholic voters support Bush and Kerry by about the same percentages as the rest of those queried.
Nevada and New Mexico are the notable exceptions among the battleground states. In both states Catholics are significantly more likely than their counterparts to say they'll vote for Kerry.
-- Nevada: Overall -- Bush voters, 47 percent; Kerry voters, 47 percent. Catholics -- Bush voters, 41 percent; Kerry voters, 56 percent. About 26 percent of the population is Catholic.
-- New Mexico: Overall -- Bush voters, 44 percent; Kerry voters, 54 percent. Catholics -- Bush voters, 30 percent; Kerry voters, 69 percent. New Mexico's population also is about 24 percent Catholic.
Wenzel said the candidates' positions on abortion are unlikely to be as strong a factor for Catholics in the West, partly because in most of the hotly contested Western states Catholics represent a smaller percentage of the population and targeting campaign messages to them is tougher.
But in states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, whose population is 23 percent Catholic, winning over a majority of Catholics could make enough of a difference to put the state in either candidate's "win" column, Wenzel said.
Zogby's statistical margin of error in its state-by-state battleground polling ranges from a high of plus or minus 4.3 percent in West Virginia, where it queried 532 voters, to a low of plus or minus 2.4 percent in Ohio, where it queried 1,714 voters. Margins of error would be higher for breakout samples, such as Catholics.
Faithful Citizenship: A Catholic Call to Political Responsibility
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Some more true Christians standing up for their beliefs. Excellent news.
My analysis of this is that Catholics will vote for someone who is pro-choice but not a Catholic, like Clinton, but feel that to vote for someone who is nominally a Catholic, like Kerry, who is pro-choice is somehow a betrayal of the faith. At least for president. Cradle Catholic here and not sure why but that's my thought.
Kerry:
Strike one = Divorced Catholic that was remarried.
Strike two = Pro Abortion.
Strike Three = Pro Homosexual.
Kerry has lost his faith and I think the Pope should censure him.
http://www.relevantradio.com/docs/?categoryid=116
During the announcements at the end of church (Catholic) this morning, the speaker urged everyone to stop by the voter registration booth set up outside, and register to vote - and then vote for Catholic values to save the unborn and protect marriage. I almost applauded!
I hope that the Catholic Church keeps urging us to vote Catholic values. It will not be good news for Kerry!
This would be good news, if Zogby's polls were worth the paper upon which they are printed.
Incorrect, Patricia. Catholic teaching opposes direct abortion. Suggest you review: Declaration on Procured Abortion, Charter for Health Care Workers, the Catechism and Evangelium Vitae.
I'm rather peeved at our church. It's emphasizing the "unjust nature" of the iraq war and the DEATH PENATLY over abortion. There's going to be a peace & justice meeting next weekend at the church that has been promoted big time and I'm concerned that it's going to be biased anti-bush (as a few other meetings have been). I'd like to go and dispute their point of view, but as a cradle catholic who has only recently re-entered the church, I feel it isn't really my place to contradict the church workers... but I probably will anyhow.
... there goes the next Federal Building named "John F Kerry Abortion Clinic".
I don't think this is true. I'm under the impression that in situations such as an ectopic pregnancy, the fetus can be aborted because there is absolutely no chance it can survive.
Your church is misguided. Abortion is a threshhold issue that trumps war and the death penalty everytime. If a human being is denied the right to life, then none of the other issues matter. Destruction of the innocent is always wrong. Conversely, war and the death penalty do not target the innocent and a Catholic can morally be for or against them.
But Wenzel said, although Catholics may disagree with bishops who want to impose such a sanction on politicians, news on the topic brought to the forefront Kerry's position on life issues. And that is turning some Catholic voters into Bush supporters, he said.
This is uplifting news, NYer. Thanks.
If my church starting pushing anti-war peace stuff, I'd leave.
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