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Russia considering retaliatory military strikes outside country
Sep. 29, 2004

Russia considering retaliatory military strikes outside country

By Dave Montgomery

K
night Ridder Newspapers

MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin, under public pressure to retaliate against terrorists in the aftermath of the Beslan school massacre, is weighing options that include a cross-border military strike in neighboring Georgia and a dramatic escalation of Russian troops in Chechnya, military analysts say.

Assertions by Putin's top defense advisers that Russia will pursue terrorists outside the country have increased speculation that the Kremlin is aiming at Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, a reputed hideout for possibly hundreds of Chechen insurgents.

Georgia, a South Carolina-sized nation with strong ties to the United States, lies south of Russia and shares a 50-mile border with Chechnya, a breakaway Russian republic in the turbulent North Caucasus region.

Pavel Felgengauer, a Moscow defense analyst with contacts in the Russian defense ministry, said a strike into the Pankisi is emerging as the most likely response, despite the potential diplomatic ramifications of a raid into a sovereign nation.

Although the option is still under review within the Kremlin and the Defense Ministry, Felgengauer said an incursion into Georgia could come in the next two weeks, possibly involving bombings by SU-25 attack planes or a deployment of Russian paratroopers.

"People here in Moscow believe such an invasion is imminent," he said. Putin, he added, "has to do something visible that the public would see as Russia hitting back."

The Sept. 1-3 siege at a school in Beslan in southern Russia left 331 dead, including 172 children, and renewed scorn for Russia's security forces, who are often criticized for corruption and shoddy training. The deadly standoff, which Russian officials say was orchestrated by Chechen insurgents, was the latest in a series of recent terrorist attacks that have claimed more than 600 lives.

Shortly after the Beslan massacre, Col. Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, chief of the general staff of Russia's armed forces, declared that Russia will "take all measures to liquidate terrorist bases in any region of the world." Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov also defended Russia's right to carry out pre-emptive strikes outside of Russia.

A raid into the Pankisi would ignite furious protests from Georgia.

The Bush administration has sought to maintain robust relations with Georgia and Russia. U.S. officials are hoping the nations, despite more than a decade of strained relations, can work jointly to stamp out terrorist strongholds in the Pankisi.

Russian defense leaders must act soon if they pursue an attack in Georgia, because winter in the Caucasus Mountains could block off passes and bog down troops, analysts said.

"I believe military planners are reluctant," said Felgengauer, "but if they're given direct orders, they'll do what they're told."

Another option would be to dispatch thousands more troops into Chechnya, where the Russian military has been battling insurgents for much of the past decade.

Some analysts said that move could backfire by hardening the Chechen resistance.

Led by Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev, the militants have shown resilience against numerically superior Russian troops in Chechnya and are believed to be branching out into nearby Muslim republics, including Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria.

Consequently, experts say, part of the emerging military strategy in the aftermath of Beslan may be to toughen up the Russian troop presence elsewhere in the North Caucasus region, with special commando operations or gunship attacks on suspected terrorist strongholds.

"They're obviously looking at targets in Chechnya, and perhaps Ingushetia and Georgia," said James Nixey, a Russian specialist with the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

Extreme measures, such as political assassinations of high-profile Chechens living abroad, also might be on the list of options, say several analysts. A top potential target, they say, would be Aslan Maskhadov, the former president of Chechnya and the accused co-plotter of the Beslan attack who's widely thought to be hiding outside of Russia.

Russian officials also have pressed for the return of one of Maskhadov's top representatives, Akhmed Zakayev, who sought refuge in England with the help of actress Vanessa Redgrave. A Russian extradition warrant accuses him of terrorist crimes dating to 1996, including a deadly siege at a Moscow theater in 2002.

Two Russian agents were sentenced to life in prison in Qatar for the car-bomb assassination in February of Zelimkhan Yanderbiyev, a Basayev associate with suspected ties to al-Qaida. Russia is trying to free the two men and denies their involvement in the assassination.

Other experts say Russia may be hesitant to risk the diplomatic backlash and sanctions by killing Chechens given haven by other countries. "Unless they get completely crazy," said Anatol Lieven, an analyst with the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "they're not going to start blowing up Chechens in Western countries."

http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/9791927.htm