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Minister of Defense Rules out Nuclear Weapons
Russia in the World ^ | September 12th, 2004
Posted on 09/12/2004 9:55:46 PM EDT by struwwelpeter
Russian Defense Minister ruled out the use of nuclear weapons in the fight against terror
Pre-emptive strikes against terrorist bases will not include the use of nuclear weapons. This was declared by RF Minister of Defense Sergey Ivanov on the air (during an interview on Russian television station) NTV this Sunday. "A pre-emptive strike may include anything possible except for the use of a nuclear weapon. If they've declared war on us, and we've undergone an attack, well excuse me, in a war all means are well and good" the minister said.
"When I spoke of pre-emptive strikes - this doesn't mean at all that we would use large combat formations, frontal aviation, warships, and the like, though we also have this," Sergey Ivanov noted.
In his words, "to judge by what forces and means are at our disposal, we have units at constant readiness, we have a very accurate aviation weapon, and so forth."
"In any case, of course we're not going to discuss ahead of time just what sort of pre-emptive strike we're going to carry out," Sergey Ivanov concluded.
Effectively defending Russia is possible only with a mobile army, Ivanov declared. The head of the military underscored that in this century of modern technology "one can only survive using modern armaments, and not just by the number of soldiers."
"The question of mobility is a tough one," Ivanov emphasized. Regarding the question of reforms being carried out in the armed forces, the defense head said that by the year 2008 it is planned to have the entire armed forces serving on a contract basis.
"We calculate that by 2008 all units at constant readiness from the army, naval infantry, paratroop units will be fully on a contract (volunteer) basis, - noted Ivanov.
"A change over to a contract system is simply not possible to do in single hour", - the minister said. In his words "to carry out reform in the course of one or two years, this simply utopia."
12 September 2004
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1214224/posts
Activity levels around the world are increasing. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
9/12/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04
1. Attack threat windows
9/12/04 Primary Window: Between now and November 2nd. No change since 8/16/04. We are in a 60 days window before the presidential election" which is held on Nov. 2 of this year. Intelligence reported by many gov't officials and new media indicate the desire by OBL to launch an attack with the intent to disrupt/alter the results of our elections just like what happened in Spain. This window not only includes the US but also allies of the United States or supported the war in Iraq. According to Tom Ridge, Threat reporting over the last several months has been "consistent, general and credible" and indicated the al-Qaida network is trying to push ahead with its plans.
9/8/04 A tip through DHS referred to a Sept. 24 to Oct. 10 window for a potential attack in NYC
Secondary window: (9/2/04) This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005.
2. Attack Indicators
9/11/04 Al-Zawahri's tape marks the third year in a row that al-Qaida has released a Sept. 11 anniversary videotape. However, in previous years, bin Laden delivered the message. An intelligence official speaking on condition of anonymity said government experts are examining numerous aspects of the recording, including whether it may be a precursor to an attack. However, the official cautioned that such a pattern holds true only occasionally. callmejoe and other TM’ers are looking at these events and trying to evaluate if there is a pattern linking the messages to terror attacks.
Some terrorists captured recently by Pakistan indicated that there was an expectation of a audio/video tape from either OBL or Al Zawahri to alert positioned cells to begin operations.
3. Current Terrorist Operations
N. Korea
9/11/04 President Bush and his top advisers have received intelligence reports in recent days describing a confusing series of actions by North Korea that some experts believe could indicate the country is preparing to conduct its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon.
While the indications were viewed as serious enough to warrant a warning to the White House, American intelligence agencies appear divided about the significance of the new North Korean actions, much as they were about the evidence concerning Iraq's alleged weapons stockpiles.
One official with access to the intelligence called it "a series of indicators of increased activity that we believe would be associated with a test," saying that the "likelihood" of a North Korean test had risen significantly in just the past four weeks.
9/12/04 At least one and possibly two very large explosions occurred in N. Korea Wednesday night - Thursday morning. This explosion(s) may be part of the "indicators" reported to President Bush and reported to the media on 9/11. A S. Korean government source disclosed on Sept. 12 that two seismic activities were detected presumably related to two explosions, one at 11pm on 09/08, and the other at 1am on 09/09. Allegedly, a ‘crater’ is visible from satellite imagery.
The general blast location is in a mountainous area close to an underground missile base that was also listed as a possible uranium enrichment site. South Korean and U.S. officials have said the explosion at Kimhyungjik county near North Korea's border with China was unlikely to have been a nuclear weapons test, although no definitive explanation has been put forth.
There was a previously reported blast in 2002 at that location that occurred during a missile engine test which blew the whole stand apart.
Godzilla comments: This blast is alleged to be 3 times as large as hit the rail way station earlier this year. Some have estimated a potential blast in the 3-6 kiloton range. As of 9/12, I have not been able to find any seismic evidence on-line to evaluate. Difficulties include finding a source close enough to the event to clearly define it. This limits it to China, N. Korea and S. Korea. Japanese seismographs are still too jittery from after shock from Labor Day earthquakes to pick out this event clearly. If this is a real nuclear test, there is an international group of scientists who monitor seismographs and other sensitive recording instruments to help enforce the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. If valid, they may pop up with confirmatory data.
Three possibilities
1. Actual nuke test. However this is relatively unlikely because it would be very close to a nuclear processing facility and significant military base (both could be endangered if a mishap occurred) and the Chinese border (who are probably spying very closely). Also no proud report from the N. Koreans announcing their entry into the nuke club. Finally, night time surface bursts would create other very evident signatures (flash, EMP) which would give the test away. The Nuclear Test Ban Treaty watchdogs may issue a statement/report if a nuclear explosion is confirmed by their evaluation of the data.
2. Missile test failure / catastrophic explosion. The facility has had a catastrophic explosion in the past. An explosion in a fuel facility with a later blast as the situation was out of control could account for the two events alledgely recorded as well as a ‘mushroom’ cloud visible the next day (consider smoke clouds from major forest fires).
3. Calibration explosion(s) as a precursor to an actual test.
Given the 4th world safety standards, as one commentator called it, it is very likely that possibility number 2 is the best candidate to account for the explosion(s).
Iraq
9/12/04 The day after an audiotape from al-Zarqwai was released, intense fighting began in downtown Bagdad. Attacks include rockets and mortars.
9/11/04 An audiotape purportedly by key terror suspect Abu Musab al-Zarqawi boasts in an apparently recent recording that Islamic holy warriors have humiliated the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq.
Italy
9/11/04 The Ansar al-Zawahiri group have given Italy 24 hours to promise to release Muslim women prisoners in Iraq in exchange for details about two kidnapped women aid workers, in a statement published on a website Friday. This is the same terrorist group that has issued 7 threats against Italy since July 11th.
Afghanistan
9/11/04 AQ is directing the resistance resulting in better trained attacks. Militants attacking U.S. forces along the Pakistani border with mortars and rockets expertly adjust their aim betraying a high level of training not commonly seen among Taliban fighters. Arabs, Saudis and Yemenis were among fighters recently detected in parts of southern Kandahar province as well as the former al-Qaida stronghold of Khost.
Pakistan
9/11/04 Strong indications that Islamic extremists are planning a new wave of bloody attacks against Western targets emerged in Pakistan where detained militants revealed that the latest al Qa'eda video tape was intended to be a trigger for fresh atrocities.
Prisoners captured in recent weeks have told their interrogators that last week's taped message from Ayman Al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's deputy, was a signal for al Qa'eda cells that were already on standby.
Israel
9/11/04 Officials in Israel have increase the country’s alert status after receiving information of plans by Islamic insurgency groups to carry out a series of major attacks on Israeli civilians in both the Jewish state and the region over the next week. They said the attacks were being planned in such areas as Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, Jordan, Turkey, India's Kashmir region and southern Thailand.
Syria/Lebanon
9/11/04 The US government is holding Syria responsible for the recent bus bombings in Israel and as told the Syrian government to discontinue support to terrorist and to leave Lebanon.
Indonesia
9/11/04 A second group of suicide bombers is thought to be at large in Jakarta and may be preparing for another attack after this week's Australian embassy bombing. Intelligence comes through all the time about threats and possible threats and there's further intelligence in the last 24 to 48 hours of a second group.
9/11/04 Fanatics from the Islamic terror faction blamed for last week's suicide attack on the Australian embassy in Indonesia are planning to hijack an oil tanker or freighter and turn it into a floating bomb.
The terrorists have been discussing plans to seize a vessel using local pirates. The hijacked ship would be wired with explosives and then directed at other vessels, sailed towards a port or used to threaten the narrow and congested sea routes around Indonesia.
Indonesia will hold a presidential runoff election on September 20, 2004. The Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and other similar terrorist groups might use these elections as opportune occasions to conduct attacks.
Australia
9/11/04 Security inside and outside airports across Australia will be beefed up in response to the embassy bombing in Jakarta. Mr Howard said the national terror threat would remain at "medium", despite talk of extra security around the country, and he would not be drawn on any specific threats.
Saudi Arabia
9/11/04 The U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia closed its consulate in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah after a car bomb exploded in the town on the third anniversary of the terrorist attacks on Washington and New York.
Iran
9/12/04 There are reports of Iranian military units conducting exercises along the border with Iraq. These exercises are reportedly involving thousands of troops.
9/11/04 France, Germany and Britain agree for the first time to set a deadline on Iran to comply with international demands on its nuclear activities. This demand was soundly rejected by Iran
9/11/04 Iran has announced its intention to start processing 37 tons of uranium yellowcake that Western intelligence officials estimate will provide Teheran with enough weapons grade material to build up to five nuclear bombs.
Russia
9/12/04 Russian still investigating leads following the recent terror attacks, threatening to conduct preemptive military strikes world-wide against terrorists.
England
9/8/04 Police arrested four men Tuesday under the Terrorism Act in the port city of Southampton. The four, aged between 26 and 34, were being questioned, Hampshire police said. Police gave no further details about the men or what they were suspected of doing.
Central America
9/3/04 Reports are circulating that Al-Qaida may have an alliance with a violent Central American gang that has established a presence near the Texas-Mexico border. Mara Salvatrucha, an El Salvador-based gang, has allegedly met with AQ and may attempt to infiltrate the U.S. border. El Salvadoran officials have told American officials that they have verified that al-Qaida has been active in these gangs.
United States
9/12/04 It continues to be assumed that AQ has entered a pre-attack phase with the orders and blessing already issued by OBL. Media is making it clear that we are still a target rich environment for attacks like that which occurred in Russia.
More concerns about terrorist infiltration along the border with Mexico, particularly in view of AQ contacts with narco-terrorist organizations.
4. Attack method.
9/12/04 As has been discussed on TM and other places, the method of choice of AQ are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. 9/11 and the recent attacks in Russia do indicate that AQ can think out of the box and adapt its tactics to the group actually carrying out the attack(s).
9/4/04 An anonymous tipster recently warned federal authorities Al Qaeda plans to use fuel-laden trucks to blow up the Brooklyn Bridge, the Empire State Building and one of the tunnels to New Jersey between Sept. 24 and Oct. 10.
5. Personnel
9/8/04 Assistant Attorney General Christopher A. Wray of the Criminal Division, U.S. Attorney Kenneth L. Wainstein of the District of Columbia, and Michael J. Garcia, Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), today announced the arrest of three Michigan residents on charges of running an alien smuggling operation that illegally brought citizens from Iraq, Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries to the United States. Defendants Neeran "Nancy" Hakim Zaia, age 50, Basima "Linda" Sesi, 59, and Basil "Jack" Yousif Denha, 54, were arrested this morning in the Detroit area. The three defendants are Iraqi-born naturalized U.S. citizens and residents of Sterling Heights, a suburb of Detroit."
6. Significant meetings canceled:
9/12/04 No new cancellations.
7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
9/12/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. Other potentially targeted sites include - the American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros., Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve Bank, Bear Stearns, the UN, Wachovia, AIG, MetLife and JP Morgan Chase. The TransAmerica building and the Bank of America Bldg in San Francisco are also potential targeted buildings. However, threat levels were not raised by the DHS for these buildings.
9/8/04 Private security and law-enforcement officials in New Jersey were also contacted after the federal agency received the tip that Osama bin Laden's terror group aimed to strike at two New York landmarks (Empire State Building and the Brookland Bridge) as well as either the Holland or Lincoln tunnel..
GENERAL: Security in the NYC and surrounding areas is very tight.
8. Military operations.
9/12/04 Only 4 carrier groups deployed, 1 is on standby and preparing for October deployment (Abraham Lincoln), 3 back in port and 4 under going maintenance.
8/31/04 The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
9. Dept of Homeland Scty.
9/10/04 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
This information is current as of today, Sat Sep 11 2004 02:38:03 GMT-0700.
WORLDWIDE CAUTION
September 10, 2004
This Public Announcement is being updated to remind U.S. citizens of the continuing threat of terrorist actions and anti-American violence against U.S. citizens and interests overseas. This supersedes the Worldwide Caution dated April 29, 2004 and expires on March 10, 2005.
The Department of State is deeply concerned about the continued threat of terrorist attacks against U.S. citizens and interests abroad, as well as the potential for demonstrations and violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests overseas. U.S. citizens are reminded that demonstrations and rioting can occur at any time. In reaction to the execution of hostages in Iraq, there have been demonstrations and associated violence in the hostages’ country of origin. While Americans are generally not the targets in such incidents, U.S. citizens could be caught up in the violence. U.S. citizens are reminded to maintain a high level of vigilance and to take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness.
The Department of State remains concerned by indications that al-Qaida and affiliated groups continue to prepare to strike U.S. interests abroad. Al-Qaida and its associated organizations have struck in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Future al-Qaida attacks could possibly involve non-conventional weapons such as chemical or biological agents as well as conventional weapons of terror, to include explosive devices.
Terrorist actions may include, but are not limited to, suicide operations, assassinations, hijackings, bombings or kidnappings. These may involve aviation and other transportation and maritime interests. Terrorists do not distinguish between official and civilian targets. These may include facilities where U.S. citizens and other foreigners congregate or visit, including residential areas, business offices, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, schools, hotels and public areas. U.S. citizens are encouraged to maintain a high level of vigilance and to take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness.
U.S. Government facilities worldwide remain at a heightened state of alert. These facilities may temporarily close or suspend public services from time to time to assess their security posture. In those instances, U.S. embassies and consulates will make every effort to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens. Americans abroad are urged to monitor the local news and maintain contact with the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate.
10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
9/12/04 None currently active on my radar screen.
Russia says U.S. shares terror view
Pre-emptive strikes against militants OK, defense minister says
The Associated Press
Monday, September 13, 2004
MOSCOW Russia has the right to carry out pre-emptive strikes on militant bases abroad, Russia's defense minister said yesterday. He said Moscow and the United States see eye to eye on fighting terrorism.
Sergei Ivanov did not say what countries might be possible targets for a strike, but Russian officials in the past have said Chechen separatists have bases in nearby Georgia, and Moscow has had friction with that country's pro-U.S. government over the issue.
President Vladimir Putin has blamed international terrorism for the school hostage crisis at Beslan. He lashed out at those in the West who advise Russia to conduct peace talks with rebels in Chechnya, suggesting that they should negotiate with Osama bin Laden.
President Bush visited the Russian Embassy in Washington yesterday, signing a book of condolence and expressing outrage at the actions of "evil terrorists."
Ivanov told the NTV television channel said the U.S. administration was more receptive to Moscow's arguments on how to fight terror than some European officials.
There was no immediate U.S. comment on Russia's right to pre-emptive strikes. Speaking yesterday on Fox television, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said the school seizure and other recent attacks in Russia highlighted the need for stronger global anti-terror efforts.
Ivanov repeated yesterday an earlier statement that a "pre-emptive strike may involve anything, except nuclear weapons."
Officials have identified some of the attackers in the school seizure as Chechens.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said the school hostage-taking was directed by Shamil Basayev, the most notorious of the warlords leading Chechen rebels who have been fighting Russian forces for five years.
Lavrov also said Aslan Maskhadov, Chechnya's president from 1996-99, was connected to the hostage-taking.
An envoy for Maskhadov denied that claim.
In an apparent attempt to exploit reported dissension among Chechen rebels, a Russian security official said Chechen militants are eligible for a $10 million reward for information about top rebel leaders.
This story can be found at: http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD/MGArticle/RTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031777896955