THE EVOLUTION OF CONVENTIONAL WISDOM (Kerry vs. Bush)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 9/9/04 | T. Bevan

[Cableguy]

"At this point, I believe, it's safe to say that unless something happens to change the dynamics and circumstances of this race, Bush will lose." - Charlie Cook on July 25

"Neither side is likely to win big, but the odds of a Bush blowout win seem lower than those of a Kerry blowout, barring some dramatic event such as a major terrorist attack." - Charlie Cook on July 27

"President Bush must have a change in the dynamics and the fundamentals of this race if he is to win a second term." - Charlie Cook on August 10

"It really is pretty amazing how fast the conventional wisdom can change." - Charlie Cook on August 31

"By in large, to the extent that this election is about terrorism and leadership, or if news stories about those dominate the news, President Bush is very likely to win." - Charlie Cook on September 7

[Cableguy]

All these political analysts flip-flop too

[stuartcr]

What is the difference between flip-flopping, and correcting you prediction as the situation changes?

[Always Right]

I am betting this Charlie Cook fellow was right. The only question is, what day was he right on?

[orionblamblam]

Flip-flopping is chan ging to suit the situation, not changing to suit revised data.

[comebacknewt]

On the whole, I like Charlie Cook. I was stunned that he wrote off W's chances before the GOP even held its convention.

Looks like he should have held off a bit. Even the most optimistic RATs look at the race as no better than a toss-up now, and many of them are deeply discouraged about Fn's chances.

[rushmom]

Charlie Cooke ought to just shut up. He's useless.

[rushmom]

That's why Post #6. A lot of pundits (add Sabato to the list) have sold their souls early on to try to create a selffulfilling prophecy for Kerry...and it's sickening.

[stuartcr]

Wouldn't the data, ie polling results, determine the situation, ie, who may win...?

[orionblamblam]

Yes.

If this guy told Group A "Bush will win" in the morning and Group B "Kerry will win" in the afternoon, without new data or analysis in between - changing his story jsut to suit the audience - that's flip flopping.

[stuartcr]

Judging by the little that I have observed in politics throughout the years...it seems that all politicians say what their particular constituency (audience) wants to hear..isn't that a big part of what politicians do to get votes?

It seems, that with the time difference between his statements, he changed after new data was presented. Sounds more like trying to be accurate, than flip-flopping....I guess it's subjective.

[orionblamblam]

> it seems that all politicians say what their particular constituency (audience) wants to hear

Welcome to reality. Even the best politician is a lyin' sack o'crap*; the worst ones just lie more, and only tell the truth on really stupid ideas.

> Sounds more like trying to be accurate

Concur.



* Don't agree? Think Bush is different? Three words: "Religion of peace."

[stuartcr]

Being a politician just doesn't seem like a legitimate job...pretty nasty way to make a living. Luckily, no one would ever elect me to any office anyway.