right now, I think we may be in recession by late 2005. job growth is not strong, I see a slowdown at work, more layoffs at large coprorations, more grinding down of health benefits and elimination of retiree medical - add $40 oil to that, and Greenspan wanting to take the fed funds rate to 4% - we could be in recession (or damn near close to 0% GDP) later in 2005.
So where do you think oil will trade by late 2005? I'm glad to know another prognosticator.