The track that is showing up on the FSU package believe it or not on a solid percentage of the models shows a landfall in Collier County as a possibility or Dade county moving either NE or due N once on land. A few others are showing landfall in Tampa and going NE inland. 2-3 others don't let the storm near Florida and pound the Bahamas. Then we have another track that takes Ivan across Florida...out to sea..and into Cape Fear, N.C. in less than 120 hrs.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 072350
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE SEP 07 2004
...IVAN REGAINS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO...
AS WELL AS FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLUMBIA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.
AT 645 PM AST...2245Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MARTINIQUE HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR MARTINIQUE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105
KM... WEST OF GRENADA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 385 MILES...620 KM...
EAST OF BONAIRE.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IVAN IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. GRENADA REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 116 MPH...187
KM/HR WHEN THE EYE PASSED BY A FEW HOURS AGO.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N... 62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Which model gave the most-accurate predictions for Frances?