Posted on 09/06/2004 7:43:03 PM PDT by Dales
There was one person who asked to be added to the ping list that somehow I missed. If I could remember who I would fix it but I cannot. Whoever it was, I apologize.
ping
Add me to your list. Thanks.
Great article and update as usual.
Dale please add me to the ping list, thanks again for great work. Still looking for your analysis of states with the highest undecided % and how many of those fall into the battleground states.
Thanks!
Dales, please add me to your list.
Good work, as always. I maintain that Ohio should be at least leaning Bush at this point.
Dales,
I disagree most strongly with your characterization of Pennsylvania. Several reasons for this:
1. President Bush is polling much better in Southeastern Pennsylvania than he did in 2000. There are several reasons - a good regional economy, the astute manner by which the President has addressed social issues (he's pro-life because it's compassionate), and because his opponent is a 1980's liberal. President Bush has also been doing fairly well in Philadelphia County...
2. President Bush is, and I mean, IS cleaning up in Central Pennsylvania. One reason why President Bush lost the state in 2000 was that he did not get out conservative voters in the T. The evidence seems to indicate that the ground game here is really good...
3. In Northeastern PA, where the economy isn't exactly red hot, the President is drawing rather large crowds, given the regional Democratic bias. While I hope President Bush carries Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties, I'm not so sure that his margins in the surrounding counties will be such that even a small Kerry victory in Lackawanna can be overwhelmed with surrounding counties...
4. In Western Pennsylvania, the Democrats have been smacked around ever since Tom Ridge and Rick Santorum strode on the political stage. While the Democrats can talk about the Heinz influence all they want, I still believe that the western half of the state will again go for President Bush, and this time by a wider margin.
5. Yeah, it's not going to be easy, but everyone seems rather enthusiastic...I have two new voters registered as Republicans in Northampton County, so you may be surprised...
Hopefully this will be the last one of these I will do with Kerry ahead.
It will.
Thanks for the discussion of the turn out by self identification. I found it very interesting.
What is going on in CO? I would think it would be at least leaning to Bush? Am I wrong in thinking CO is a Rep leaning state?
We Will JUST FIGHT HARDER MAN !!!!!
And another thing, the open congressional seats in Pennsylvania 8, Pennsylvania 13, and Pennsylvania 15 play to our advantage in the Philly suburban counties...
I have yet to see any significant coordination between President Bush and Senator Specter. This may be vital to the chances of both candidates...
I'd like to be added to your list. Thanks.
As for Delaware, my advice would be to look at polling data for Southern New Jersey, Suburban Philly, and Maryland's Eastern Shore...if Bush is up in these regions, then he's probably ahead in the first state.
Add me too. :)
A few days like today in Iraq and it won't be
but
A few more Kerry flip flops on Iraq and W is for wrong stuff and it will be
So if Time and Newsweek's polls were not flawed in that they do not control for partisan level, then should it be assumed that they are accurate results? I say no.
The Newsweak poll was weighted. But for Newsweak's weighting, Bush would have led Kerry by 16 points. Between us chickens, I trust the Gallup poll over all the others you discussed.
So far it looks like pollsters are overstating dems turnout and underreporting us.Look at Co,Sc,Pa and Fl.I think it's great
Here are the demographics to the latest Gallup poll:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1208651/posts?page=195#195
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