Electoral College Breakdown 2004, September 6th Update

Daly Thoughts & The Electoral College Breakdown 2004 ^ | 9/6/04 | Gerry Daly

[Dales]

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Turnout Model

The Republican convention is over, and polls are coming out showing very different pictures of the Bush bounce. Time Magazine has the President up by 10. Newsweek did that one better, having him up by 11. Rasmussen has him up by 2, although he says if one outlying day's sample is factored out it becomes a four point lead. Gallup splits the difference, having Bush leading by seven points.

Rasmussen was concerned enough at the reaction to his firm's different result that he wrote an explanation. The crux of his article is that pollsters like those who conducted the Time and Newsweek polls do not control for partisan affiliation and that can lead to some results that defy credulity. For example, the Newsweek poll had more self-identified Republicans in the sample than Democrats. Since the advent of exit polling, self-identified Democrats have constituted more of the voters than Republicans by a minimum of two percent. That certainly would appear to be a problem in the methodology.But is it, or is it something else?

Another poll which does not control for partisan level is Gallup. Historically, Gallup's results have been pretty good overall, generally falling well within the margin of error for both candidates with few exceptions since 1960 (the one that jumps out is that they overstated Clinton's support and understated Perot's in 1992). Gallup could not have attained such a record if their methodology was inherently flawed.

So if Time and Newsweek's polls were not flawed in that they do not control for partisan level, then should it be assumed that they are accurate results? I say no. My experience has shown that polls taken during and within a day of conventions tend to produce results that may not be replicated even just two or three days after the conventions. The most likely explanation for this is that during and immediately after a convention, those who were excited by the convention are more likely to want to participate in a poll and share their excitement. A typical media conducted poll has a successful contact rate (successfully completed survey per call) below 25%, so there is a lot of room for growth there, and if suddenly one side's partisans suddenly were less likely to hang up, then it would be quite easy for them to become overrepresented in the sample of a poll that does not control for partisan affiliation. As Mickey Kaus noted, the Newsweek poll conducted during the Democratic convention had what looks like an overrepresentation of Democrats. It is extremely likely that the next Time poll and the next Newsweek poll will show the race tighter than their current results. The problem with them is not the methodology, but rather when they were conducted.

Rasmussen, on the other hand, does control for partisan levels, as does Zogby. The fact that Rasmussen did not show much, if any, movement could mean that there was no movement, or it could mean there was movement his methodology could not see. If, for example, during either convention the percentage of the electorate that self-identifies as either party was to change, a poll conducted with static percentages of each party in the sample would not catch this movement. As Time and Newsweek's polls showed, among those who were answering their phones and being receptive towards being polled during the Republican convention showed a much greater propensity towards identifying as Republicans than previously. If turnout among Republicans and Democrats as a percentage of the total vote is markedly different than the assumed turnout rates, then these polls will be off.

By controlling for partisanship, a poll can avoid the fluctuations that can be caused not by changes in public opinion but rather in the willingness of certain people to be polled due to emerging events. When the predicted turnout model turns out to be correct, these polls will be extremely accurate, as Zogby's was in 1996. When the predicted turnout model turns out to be incorrect, they will not be, as was the case with a high percentage of Zogby's 2002 Senate polls.

Rasmussen notes the weakness inherent with turnout modelling. "One of our great challenges between now and Election Day," he writes, "is to figure out how much (if at all) the turnout will change from historic norms." Before answering this, it would be helpful to know what the historic norms are. For this, we can examine the exit poll data available. Unfortunately, this limits us to the Presidential elections since 1976 (and seven elections is not a lot from which to try to draw conclusions).

Designation\Year	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000
Self Identifed Democrats	37%	43%	38%	37%	38%	40%	39%
Self Identified Republicans	22%	28%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%
Data Source	CBS	CBS/NYTimes	CBS/NYTimes	CBS/NYTimes	Voter Research	Voter News Service	Voter News Service

Some items gleaned from the data:

• Republicans have had 35% of the electorate in five consecutive elections.
• Democrats have ranged from 37% of the electorate up to 43%. Within the last five elections they have ranged from 37% to 40%.
• Four incumbent Presidents ran for re-election during this period. When Democrat Jimmy Carter ran for re-election, self-identified Democrats increased 6% from when he first ran. When Republican Ronald Reagan ran for re-election, self-identified Republicans increased 7% from when he was elected. When Republican George H. W. Bush ran for re-election, Republicans maintained the same percentage of the electorate as when he was elected. And Democrat Bill Clinton increased the Democrat percentage by two from his initial election.
• The opposition party during those same four races, in order, gained 6 points, lost five points, lost one point, and remained the same-- a sum of zero for the four.
• The two times the Democrats increased their percentage of the electorate by 2% or more were when they were running an incumbent. When Republicans ran an incumbent, Democrats lost five points (Reagan) and gained one point (Bush).

If the turnout is the same as it was in 2000, then the Rasmussen result would have Bush up 4, Time would have Bush up 3, and Newsweek would have Bush up 6. (Gallup has not made the partisan breakdown available). The only incumbent which had a net loss in two-party support was the elder Bush, by a single percentage point. Using that as the turnout model gives results nearly identical to using the 2000 results as the turnout model.

If George W. Bush gets the average (mean) increase in his party's percentage of the turnout, then Republicans will make up 39% of the electorate. If the Democrats follow the trend for opposition parties (namely, no change), they will remain at the 39%; the parties would be at parity. If one applies this breakdown to the Rasmussen result prior to the outlying Saturday sample, one gets a 7 point Bush lead. Time would have Bush with a 5 point lead. Newsweek would have it a 10 point Bush lead.

In any case, it means that currently the polls are showing Bush in a position where he enjoys sufficient support that turnout would not be the decisive factor in the election. As I wrote last time, where things will go from here is an open book. Three of the last six incumbents gained support by election day from their post-convention peak. One dropped a single point. If Bush can mimic the performance of any of those four in this regard he will be re-elected. That's the bad news for Democrats. The good news for them is that it looks like Bush did not pull so far ahead that the same erosion that befell Clinton and the elder Bush would still be relevant. The race is not over, but right now the odds are in the President's favor.

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This Week's Polling Updates Overview

There were not as many polls released this week as in recent weeks, with most polling firms taking a hiatus during the convention. Still, the polls that were released showed the race tightening even more, although combined they show a net national result within a single point of being even. Since it appears that the race has opened up, at least temporarily, in President Bush's direction it is very likely that next week's ECB update will show the President ahead by a fair margin. The views that go straight by the polls, which move faster than the ECB does due to me preferring confirmation before I redesignate states, already show President Bush ahead.

The scoreboard:

	Result	With Tossups
ECB	Kerry 194, Bush 191	Kerry 254, Bush 250
ECB Classic	Bush 222, Kerry 189	Bush 275, Kerry 244
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Bush 211, Kerry 189	Bush 286, Kerry 233
Calculated National Result	Bush 46.8%, Kerry 46.0%

For the trends, the changes in each are as follows:

ECB	Kerry -17, Bush unch.	Kerry -5, Bush unch.
ECB Classic	Bush +20, Kerry -48	Bush +36, Kerry -26
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Bush +20, Kerry -48	Bush +36, Kerry -26
Calculated National Result	Bush +0.3%,Kerry -0.6%

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	Florida
	Electoral Votes: 27
	2000 Result
	Bush 48.85%
	Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as nearly every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates (D)	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/13/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/9/04	Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D)	Link	1000 LV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +3
5/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	723 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	38%	Bush +10
6/27/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,209 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
			1,209 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	LV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/20/04	Insider Advantage	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
7/19/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
			600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	729 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
7/21/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	699 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	47%	Bush +3
			699 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	46%	Bush +4
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
8/4/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	48%	Push
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	47%	Bush +1
8/5/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
8/10/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,094 RV, Nader Not An Option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
			1,094 RV, Nader An Option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader Not An Option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
			801 LV, Nader An Option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
8/22/04	Gallup	Link	671 LV, Nader An Option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
8/24/04	Rasmussen (L)	Link	500 LV, Four man race	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	47%	Bush +2
8/25/04	Schroth & Associates/The Polling Company	Link	800 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
8/27/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV, Four man race	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
8/28/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader Not An Option	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
			801 LV, Nader An Option	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4

Punditry: Strategic Vision shows Florida right near where other pollsters have it- very tight, with now three of the last four having Bush up a tad (and the fourth having it tied). They measure the approval gap at 4 points. Slight Advantage for Bush.

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	Texas
	Electoral Votes: 34
	2000 Result
	Bush 58%
	Gore 39%

Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/6/04	Scripps Howard Texas Poll	Link	1000 RV	3%	Bush	54%	Kerry	35%	Bush +19
5/15/04	Scripps Howard Texas Poll	Link	1000 RV	3%	Bush	58%	Kerry	29%	Bush +29
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	55%	Kerry	38%	Bush +17
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	55%	Kerry	37%	Bush +18
8/22/04	SurveyUSA	Link	705 LV	4%	Bush	58%	Kerry	37%	Bush +21
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
8/26/04	Scripps Research Center	Link	1000 RV	3%	Bush	57%	Kerry	33%	Bush +24

Punditry: I am starting to get really frustrated. I know that the Texas papers can commission any poll they want, just like the Alabama papers can. But come on, how about someone, somewhere, doing a Delaware poll? Is that too much to ask for, before we check to see if Bush is up 30 in Mississippi? It is not like I am asking for la-sers to be put on the heads of sharks or anything. Safe for Bush.

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	Georgia
	Electoral Votes: 15
	2000 Result
	Bush 55%
	Gore 43%

Background: Wallace and Goldwater won here. The only times the Democrats have carried this state since 1960 have been when native son Jimmy Carter was topping the ticket (twice) and when fellow southerner Bill Clinton beat that Yankee George H.W. Bush by a point, while Texan H. Ross Perot siphoned off 13% of the vote. This is not a friendly state for Democrats in Presidential elections, as even Bob Dole won here over Clinton despite Perot taking 7%.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
10/15/03	Zogby	Link	400 LV	4.5%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Bush +13
10/23/03	Shapiro Research Group	Link	RV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +8
2/4/04	Shapiro Research Group	NA	RV	4.5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	44%	Bush +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
6/2/04	Insider Advantage	Link	RV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	32%	Bush +17
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
7/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	40%	Bush +11
			801 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	38%	Bush +13
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	43%	Bush +9
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
8/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	54%	Kerry	40%	Bush +14
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	54%	Kerry	38%	Bush +16
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
8/28/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	55%	Kerry	38%	Bush +17
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	55%	Kerry	36%	Bush +19

Punditry: The comment I made moments ago about Texas applies here: how about a poll of a state we have not gotten yet before any more of these polls in states where there is no chance of a competitive race? Isakson looks to win the Senate race too, as he leads by 14. Strong Advantage for Bush.

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	Ohio
	Electoral Votes: 20
	2000 Result
	Bush 50%
	Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat four times. LBJ crushed Goldwater, Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +23
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
3/24/04	Ohio Poll	Link	632 RV	3.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
4/2/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,344 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/13/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
5/25/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	1500 RV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	722 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +3
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	41%	Bush +4
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/19/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
7/22/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	639 LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +6
			639 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/23/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,047 RV	2%	Bush	47%	Kerry	44%	Bush +3
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
8/11/04	American Research Group	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/15/04	Gallup	Link	628 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/17/04	Ohio Poll	Link	812 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	49%	Kerry	46%	Bush +3
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
8/24/04	LA Times	Link	507 RV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/27/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,176 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
8/28/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	42%	Bush +6

Punditry: Strategic Vision measures a decrease in Kerry's support level (dropping three points) which leads to the margin between the candidates increasing to 5-6 points. Still, my policy is that a state does not move towards a candidate due to a poll from a company normally associated with that party. As such, Ohio remains a Tossup. The President's job approval in Ohio is 50%.

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	Missouri
	Electoral Votes: 11
	2000 Result
	Bush 50%
	Gore 47%

Background: Considered by many to be a bellwether state, Missouri has gone Republican in every election after 1964 except for three. Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by a small, four point margin. Bill Clinton won the state twice, but both times relied on Perot taking double digits (over 20% in the first). From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% in Missouri was Carter, and the only Republican to fail to get 50% absent a truly strong third party candidate was Ford.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/9/03	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Dick Gephardt	39%	Bush +10
1/29/04	Research 2000	Link	804 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	40%	Bush +5
2/14/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/2/04	Suffolk University	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	39%	Bush +11
3/19/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	566 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	37%	Bush +11
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/8/04	SurveyUSA	Link	755 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/20/04	Market Research Institute	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Research2000	Link	802 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
			802 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	636 LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	48%	Push
			636 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	46%	Bush +4
8/18/04	SurveyUSA	Link	643 LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	47%	Bush +1
8/24/04	LA Times	Link	580 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
8/26/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4

Punditry: Moore information ends up with the same result as Rasmussen. Slight Advantage for Bush.

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	Pennsylvania
	Electoral Votes: 21
	2000 Result
	Gore 51%
	Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/?/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	RV	?%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Push
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
			1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
			769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research/Issues PA	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
5/7/04	Susquehanna Polling (R)	Link	650 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
5/14/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/25/04	Quinnipiac	Link	701 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	684 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/22/04	Quinnipiac	Link	839 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
			839 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/11/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,157 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
			1,157 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
7/20/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	815 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +10
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
8/2/04	SurveyUSA	Link	748 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
8/4/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
8/15/04	Keystone Poll	Link	660 RV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6
8/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,430 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
			1,430 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +5
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
8/21/04	Pew Research/Issues PA	Link	861 LV	3%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4
8/27/04	Gallup	Link	LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
8/28/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2

Punditry: Strategic Vision, which had been showing Pennsylvania trending away from the President at the same time other pollsters was showing the same, now shows it a tight race just as other pollsters are also finding the same thing. The state still rates as a Slight Advantage for Kerry. No approval gap in Pennsylvania.

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	Iowa
	Electoral Votes: 7
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 46%

Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.

Iowa rated a slight advantage to Bush in the first ECB of 2000. This time, it rates a slight advantage to the Democrats. Other positions in Iowa are mixed. The Republicans hold 4 of the 5 House seats, and the Senate seats are split. The Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but the Democrats hold all major executive offices except for Auditor. Republicans hold a 32% to 29% advantage in registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Des Moines Register	Link	803 Adults	3.5%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Even
10/30/03	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/5/04	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +8
2/11/04	Selzer & Co.	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
			604 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
5/27/04	SurveyUSA	Link	794 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	614 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.7%	Kerry	50.4%	Kerry +4.7
			614 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	47.7%	Kerry +3.3
7/21/04	Selzer & Co.	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
7/23/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	641 LV	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
7/28/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
8/23/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/27/04	Gallup	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +6
8/28/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push

Punditry: Both Moore Information and Strategic Vision have polls added in this update. Both show the race tight. The designation stands at Slight Advantage for Kerry. Kerry's approval rating is just 2 points higher than his disapproval rating, but still 22% are undecided on the Senator.

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	Wisconsin
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Gore 47.83%
	Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +11
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +1
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%	Dem +16
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Kerry +3
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
			500 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
4/21/04	Wisconsin Public Radio / St. Norbert College Survey Center	Link	358 RV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option	4.5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
			500 LV, Nader an option	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
4/28/04	Badger Poll	Link	511 Adults	4.5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	38%	Bush +12
5/9/04	Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	694 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	42%	Bush +2
6/23/04	Badger Poll	Link	504 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	575 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	48.4%	Kerry	45.9%	Bush +2.5
			575 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	46.1%	Kerry	44.6%	Bush +1.5
7/13/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
8/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
8/23/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
8/24/04	LA Times	Link	512 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
8/27/04	Gallup	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
8/28/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	47%	Bush +1
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
8/29/04	Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6

Punditry: Lake, Snell, Perry, and Associates has a different view of the race than other recent pollsters. They also find that people who see the Swift Boat Vets ads are more likely to vote for Kerry than they were beforehand. Slight Advantage for Bush.

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	Alabama
	Electoral Votes: 9
	2000 Result
	Bush 56%
	Gore 42%

Background: Alabama has been a reliable GOP state, only straying twice since 1960; both times it went for a southerner. Jimmy Carter carried the state, as did George Wallace.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/27/03	USA Polling Group	Link	RV	5%	Bush	60%	Unnamed Democrat	30	Bush +30
3/18/04	USA Polling Group	Link	405 adults	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	27%	Bush +32
5/3/04	SurveyUSA	Link	743 LV	3.7%	Bush	55%	Kerry	36%	Bush +19
5/13/04	USA Polling Group	Link	400 Adults	5%	Bush	55%	Kerry	33%	Bush +22
5/20/04	Capital Survey Research	Link	785 RV	4%	Bush	56%	Kerry	37%	Bush +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	57%	Kerry	36%	Bush +21
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	52%	Kerry	38%	Bush +14
7/28/04	Capital Research Center	Link	590 LV	5%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
8/23/04	SurveyUSA	Link	599 LV	4%	Bush	58%	Kerry	37%	Bush +21
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
8/31/04	Capital Survey Research Center	Link	482 LV	5%	Bush	54%	Kerry	34%	Bush +20

Punditry: Sigh. Safe for Bush.

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			New Mexico
			Electoral Votes: 5
			2000 Result
			Gore 48%
			Bush 48%

Background: No state, not even Florida, was closer in the last election than New Mexico. Prior to Clinton breaking through, the Republicans had carried the state for 6 consecutive elections, often by significant margins. Both times that Clinton carried New Mexico, the Perot vote played a significant factor. The strong showing Perot made here suggests that this is a state concerned with Mexico, both from an immigration perspective and from a jobs perspective.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	43%	Dem +3
3/15/04	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque**	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/4/04	Rasmussen (L)	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option, Badnarik an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
8/15/04	Rasmussen (L)	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option, Badnarik an option	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
8/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
9/1/04	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque	Link	908 RV	3%	Bush	45%	Kerry	42%	Bush +3

** Poll was not exactly a matchup poll, but rather a comparison of the favorability for each.

Punditry: Kerry leads among independents but trails in a state that has an overwhelming Democratic registration advantage, due to the fact that President Bush is peeling off over 20% of Democrats– and only a portion of the sample could have seen just the first two days of the Republican convention. Tossup: of the last three polls, one shows a tie, one shows Kerry ahead comfortably, and the most recent shows Bush up; the one showing Kerry up is by a company which has been favorable to the Democrats all cycle and the national polls have shown movement towards the President in the weeks leading up to the convention. In the entire survey, just one Republican, and two Democrats.

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	Minnesota
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +2
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
4/2/04	Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll	Link	562 LV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +12
5/26/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/14/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	3.5%	Bush	42.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +4.3
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	589 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.8%	Kerry	49.0%	Kerry +3.2
			589 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +2.3
7/16/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
7/24/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
8/25/04	Hart Research (D)	Link	801 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
8/28/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
9/2/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push

Punditry: Rasmussen shows a bit of a bump for the President in Minnesota, moving from 7 points in favor of Kerry not too long ago to a tie right now. I am leaving the state as a Slight Advantage for Kerry until we see where things are going to stablize.

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	California
	Electoral Votes: 55
	2000 Result
	Gore 53%
	Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +5
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +5
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Tied
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Dem +5
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%	Dem +4
2/16/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	1,103 LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	54%	Dem +17
2/22/04	LA Times	Link	1,521 RV	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Dem +13
2/27/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	505 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +5
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	455 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +9
4/17/04	Rasmussen	Link	502 LV	5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
5/6/04	SurveyUSA	Link	635 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +15
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14
7/12/04	Public Policy Institute of California	Link	1,378 LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +11
7/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
7/25/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +18
8/4/04	Field	Link	633 LV	3.4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
8/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +10
8/11/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
8/18/04	SurveyUSA	Link	589 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	654 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +9

Punditry: I said last time, after the SurveyUSA poll showed it a three point race, that I would be very surprised if more polls validated that result. As suspected, the next poll released did not; it shows Kerry ahead comfortably. Still, this is quite a bit of a better result for the President in California as compared to other California polls, and such movement in this large state would explain a good amount of the movement which has been seen in the national polls. Strong Advantage for Kerry, with a distinct possibility of being redesignated as leaning if another poll shows single digits.

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			New Jersey
			Electoral Votes: 15
			2000 Result
			Gore 56%
			Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

If New Jersey remains tight enough to stay in the battleground, it is a case of back to the future. ECB2000 started with it leaning Gore's way. The Democrats have 7 of 13 Representatives and both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, hold all of the important executive offices, and have a 25%-19% advantage in voter registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +8
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +7
9/25/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3.1%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
11/10/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,027 RV	3.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%	Bush +8
1/13/04	Rutgers	Link	823 RV	4.2%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +3
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
4/20/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/4/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	643 RV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +6
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader not an option	2.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
6/20/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,167 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
7/26/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	834 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +2
7/28/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +10
7/30/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	624 RV	4%	Bush	32%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +20
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	38%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +13
8/2/04	Quinnipiac	Link	996 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	36%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +13
8/9/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
			801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +12
8/19/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
8/19/04	National Research (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
8/23/04	Quinnipiac	Link	887 RV	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8
9/3/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +4

Punditry: The writeup has the dates of this poll as the same as the previous Rasmussen New Jersey poll, so something is up there. Either way, Rasmussen now has New Jersey a lot closer than he has had it this year, although many other pollsters have had it in this region before. I am really curious to find out what the dates are for this poll-- the writeup gives no indication that any of it was since the Republican convention. Either way, while waiting to find out, New Jersey is now Leaning Towards Kerry, and close (if this poll is accurate) to falling back into the battlegrounds.

Update: I am assuming that like the Michigan, Minnesota and California polls, this is August 27-September 3.

---

			Michigan
			Electoral Votes: 17
			2000 Result
			Gore 51%
			Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/12/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	413 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
5/31/04	Survey USA	Link	567 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/6/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	40%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Survey USA	Link	594 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
6/30/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/1/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
7/8/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	608 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
8/10/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6
8/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/24/04	SurveyUSA	Link	548 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +5
8/28/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +5
8/29/04	Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8
9/3/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4

Punditry: Michigan has been floating inbetween the Leaning and Slight Advantage for Kerry designations, and while this result is no different given the current dynamics of the race the closer two designation seems appropriate, especially considering that a good portion of this survey was conducted prior to most of the Republican convention.

---

Effective National Popular Results: Bush 46.8, Kerry 46.0%%

Kerry					Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	OR (7) K47-B41 7/31/04	WV (5) K47-B44 7/28/04	CO (9) B47-K47 8/17/04	NV (5) B44-K42 8/17/04	TN (11) B48-K46 8/2/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	ND (3)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	NH (4) K49-B42 8/5/04	IA (7) K48-B47*R 8/28/04	OH (20) B48-K43*R 8/28/04	AR (6) B49-K43 8/26/04	AZ (10) B47-K39* 8/22/04	LA (9) B54-K38 7/??/04	NE (5)
MA (12) K56-B30 7/28/04	HI (4) K48-B41 8/3/04*	WA (11) K49-B42 8/26/04	PA (21) B47-K46*R 8/28/04	NM (5) B45-K42 9/1/04	MO (11) B49-K44 8/26/04	NC (15) B53-K43 8/26/04	KY (8) B56-K39 8/15/04	WY (3)
NY (31) K56-B37 8/26/04	IL (21) K52-B38* 8/16/04	ME (4) K49-B44 8/26/04	MN (10) K46-B46 9/2/04	-	FL (27) B48-K44*R 8/28/04	VA (13) B50-K45 8/26/04	SC (8) B52-K43 8/26/04	MS (6) B61-K30 4/21/04
-	CT (7) K45-B38* 8/17/04	CA (55) K50-B42 9/3/04	MI (17) K49-B45 9/3/04	-	WI (10) K50-B44*D 8/29/04	-	GA (15) B55-K38*R 8/28/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
-	MD (10) K54-B41 8/26/04	NJ (15) K50-B46 9/3/04	-	-	-	-	-	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	ID (4) B55-K25 6/14/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AK (3) B56-K33*R 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	IN (11) B52-K40 8/18/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7) B59-K36 8/26/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B57-K33 8/26/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B54-K34 8/31/04
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
50	48	96	60	34	59	49	43	99
194			153			191

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.

[Dales]

Hopefully this will be the last one of these I will do with Kerry ahead.

There was one person who asked to be added to the ping list that somehow I missed. If I could remember who I would fix it but I cannot. Whoever it was, I apologize.

[Dales]

ping

[Jet Jaguar]

Add me to your list. Thanks.

[okstate]

Great article and update as usual.

[WoodstockCat]

Dale please add me to the ping list, thanks again for great work. Still looking for your analysis of states with the highest undecided % and how many of those fall into the battleground states.
Thanks!

[RobFromGa]

Dales, please add me to your list.

[TheBigB]

Good work, as always. I maintain that Ohio should be at least leaning Bush at this point.

[republicanwizard]

Dales,

I disagree most strongly with your characterization of Pennsylvania. Several reasons for this:

1. President Bush is polling much better in Southeastern Pennsylvania than he did in 2000. There are several reasons - a good regional economy, the astute manner by which the President has addressed social issues (he's pro-life because it's compassionate), and because his opponent is a 1980's liberal. President Bush has also been doing fairly well in Philadelphia County...

2. President Bush is, and I mean, IS cleaning up in Central Pennsylvania. One reason why President Bush lost the state in 2000 was that he did not get out conservative voters in the T. The evidence seems to indicate that the ground game here is really good...

3. In Northeastern PA, where the economy isn't exactly red hot, the President is drawing rather large crowds, given the regional Democratic bias. While I hope President Bush carries Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties, I'm not so sure that his margins in the surrounding counties will be such that even a small Kerry victory in Lackawanna can be overwhelmed with surrounding counties...

4. In Western Pennsylvania, the Democrats have been smacked around ever since Tom Ridge and Rick Santorum strode on the political stage. While the Democrats can talk about the Heinz influence all they want, I still believe that the western half of the state will again go for President Bush, and this time by a wider margin.

5. Yeah, it's not going to be easy, but everyone seems rather enthusiastic...I have two new voters registered as Republicans in Northampton County, so you may be surprised...

[onyx]

Hopefully this will be the last one of these I will do with Kerry ahead.




It will.

[JLS]

Thanks for the discussion of the turn out by self identification. I found it very interesting.

[swilhelm73]

What is going on in CO? I would think it would be at least leaning to Bush? Am I wrong in thinking CO is a Rep leaning state?

[cmsgop]

We Will JUST FIGHT HARDER MAN !!!!!

[republicanwizard]

And another thing, the open congressional seats in Pennsylvania 8, Pennsylvania 13, and Pennsylvania 15 play to our advantage in the Philly suburban counties...

I have yet to see any significant coordination between President Bush and Senator Specter. This may be vital to the chances of both candidates...

[Buck W.]

I'd like to be added to your list. Thanks.

[republicanwizard]

As for Delaware, my advice would be to look at polling data for Southern New Jersey, Suburban Philly, and Maryland's Eastern Shore...if Bush is up in these regions, then he's probably ahead in the first state.

[demlosers]

Add me too. :)

[skaterboy]

A few days like today in Iraq and it won't be
but
A few more Kerry flip flops on Iraq and W is for wrong stuff and it will be

[kesg]

BTW, please add me to your ping list if I am not already on it.

So if Time and Newsweek's polls were not flawed in that they do not control for partisan level, then should it be assumed that they are accurate results? I say no.

The Newsweak poll was weighted. But for Newsweak's weighting, Bush would have led Kerry by 16 points. Between us chickens, I trust the Gallup poll over all the others you discussed.

[skaterboy]

So far it looks like pollsters are overstating dems turnout and underreporting us.Look at Co,Sc,Pa and Fl.I think it's great

[RWR8189]

Here are the demographics to the latest Gallup poll:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1208651/posts?page=195#195