As far as I'm concerned that is backwards:
The upside of last week's convention was that the Republicans performed brilliantly. The downside is that it may finally have lit a fire under John Kerry.
It is good that it lit a fire under Kerry - it means Kerry will continue to fight the wrong way.
Dems equate a lit fire with throwing mud. Throwing mud CAN work - if it is the right mud at the right target.
The DUI revelation just before the 2000 election nearly beat GWB. It was the right mud - it reinforced the fear voters had that GWB might not be up to the job. Even I was disturbed that he would be so foolish not to have mentioned the DUI before then...an old DUI doesn't hurt a born-again teetotaler, but a concealed one in a Presidential campaign indicates someone isn't ready for prime time.
And it was the right target - voters hadn't made up their minds about GWB. He was still largely unknown.
Now that has all changed. Voters have had 4 years watching GWB - love him or hate him, they KNOW him. They don't CARE what he did in the Guard or how he got there.
So when Kerry attacks Bush on these issues, he's not just wasting his breath - he's sliming someone that 60-65% of Americans like. And they don't like that.
In this campaign, Kerry is the unknown. The Swiftboat Vet's ads work because they are fact based and play on something that nags at most people, namely, why does Kerry keep bringing up Vietnam? In the back of their minds, voters realize the emphasis on Vietnam indicates Kerry hasn't done much since. With every repetition, they wonder why he isn't talking about the issues...and wonder if that means Kerry doesn't know what to do about the issues.
So bring it on! Let Kerry lash out with ever increasing anger!
With every attack on GWB and Cheney, voters realize A) Kerry is a jerk, and B) Kerry doesn't have a plan for the future.
When Kerry throws mud, it only sticks to himself.