The Islamic Republic Of Turkey?

“The generals must be having nightmares.” So observed a Turkish analyst after his country’s parliament passed laws last week dramatically reducing the political role of the country’s armed forces. Those laws will “revolutionize the conduct of Turkish politics,” observes London’s Daily Telegraph.

What might seem like bureaucratic wrangling has such potentially profound importance because the Turkish armed forces have long been Turkey’s main bastion for political moderation and close relations with the United States and Israel; how will the country fare absent this steady hand?

The question is the more urgent because last week’s overhaul was carried out by the Justice and Development Party (known in Turkish as AKP), an enigmatic organization that has dominated Turkish politics since its smashing electoral victory in November 2002. Since then, the key issue of Turkish public life has been whether the AKP is:

· A militant Islamic party with authoritarian tendencies and a hidden agenda of radical change (as its opponents claim); or

· A secular party with moderately conservative views (as the AKP portrays itself).

Early signs were positive. Recep Tayyip Erdoðan, the AKP leader and now Turkey’s prime minister, gave assurances that the AKP is “not a religious-oriented party” and insisted it has no intent to impose Islamic law. The party made soothing noises about putting off substantial changes until it had won the electorate’s trust. It emphasized economic development and joining the European Union, not Islamic hot-button issues.

Optimists surveyed Erdoðan’s record and concluded along with two leading Turkish professors, Metin Heper and Þule Toktaþ, that he is “not pro-political Islam.” Others went further: American journalist Robert Kaplan proposed that the AKP could “usher in an Islamic version of the Protestant Reformation,” leading to a general turn toward liberalism in the Middle East. Kaplan also raised the possibility that the AKP in power could benefit Americans by widening popular Turkish support for alliance with the United States.

But pessimists noted AKP’s origins in two political parties subsequently outlawed for their militant Islamic activism. “The people who control AKP are much more extreme than they say,” asserted one worried Turkish official. The Turkish military worried too; thus, Chief of Staff Hilmi Özkök reportedly warned the newly assembled cabinet that “the Turkish armed forces will continue to devote all of its attention to protecting secularism.”

The glow of optimism dimmed in March 2003, when the Turkish parliament, firmly in the AKP grip, voted against permitting U.S. forces to deploy in Turkey against Iraq, overnight sundering decades of mutual confidence. Initial AKP attempts to hide behind parliamentary inexperience wore thin when Erdoðan later insisted his party “never made any mistakes” on this vote.

The vote had many consequences. It increased tensions between the AKP and the military. It upset the U.S. government; Paul Wolfowitz of the Department of Defense dubbed the decision a “big, big mistake.” It prompted a reassessment among Turkey’s American friends; William Safire wrote with dismay in The New York Times how the AKP had transformed a “formerly staunch U.S. ally into Saddam’s best friend.” And it raised new fears about the AKP’s covert militant Islamic agenda.

The optimistic view further eroded when it became known that the Turkish foreign minister, an AKP leader, had instructed Turkey’s diplomatic missions abroad to support a virulent militant Islamic group called Milli Görüþ – described by a Hamburg court as the “greatest danger” to a democratic order in Germany. Nor did it help when an AKP-dominated parliamentary committee voted to multiply nine-fold the number of new government-paid mosque positions.

By May, Gen. Özkök was privately scolding Erdoðan. Publicly, he spoke of military “sensitivities” concerning the AKP and warned it against engaging in “anti-secular activities.” He even alluded to the military possibly removing the AKP from power.

In this context, last week’s vote represents the AKP throwing down the gauntlet. Ignoring the military’s objections, it passed laws in the context of preparing Turkey for European Union membership that heavily restrict the generals’ political influence.

This action raises two questions: Will the flag officers accept this limitation? And is this the start of a process that could transform Turkey, for 80 years the stalwart of secularism in the Muslim Middle East, into an Islamic republic?

I had a history prof at a us college with whom I had to argue that Turkey is not an islamic republic. That was 20 years ago. He gave me a very hard time after that, but f him.

Odd that he would think that, since there aren't really that many "Islamic Republics" around in the first place. Modern Middle Eastern countries were fashioned from the wreckage of the Ottoman Empire, and most of them had at least nominally pro-Western governments installed.

Thanks for the tips.

I admit right off that I know very little Turkish history and politics, so take this as a question.

I've read that Erdogan was in his youth a jihadi and wrote quite a bit in support of jihad. Also, he was convicted of inciting religious hatred, though he did very little time for it.

I do know the history of the military protecting the very successful creation of Kemal Attaturk, that creation being the successful modern state of Turkey.

I wondered in the beginning of the war with Iraq when Erdogan jerked everyone around so much and ruptured the former close ties with USA. Seeing the issue differently (war) is one thing, but, as I remember, he first said we could come in and then not. He stalled us until it appeared we had to scrap an alternate plan into place after wasting valuable time. IOW he didn't just disagree with us, he attempted to sabotage us.

At that time I expected some action from the Turkish military--especially given Erdogan's known jihadi past and questionable present. Nothing happened. I've been wondering since if the military had been infiltrated by Islamists. Could this be?

I'm told that the AKP arose out of the ashes of a banned Sharia group in Turkey.

Not a surprise. And it should not be a surprise to anyone that they are protesting and rising right now. Their regional neighbors in Chechnya have been wreaking havoc and causing indescribable horror. The AQ is no doubt 'helping' all of them, much to our detriment.

If an Islamic movement gains enough popular support, the Turkish military might be powerless to stop it.

That is their hope and aim. Considering that the Chechens have said they are getting outside help and Arab mercenaries to help and the AQ has expressed interest in starting war and taking over in the Caucus, this is no surprise. The tenacles of AQ are wide reaching and poisonous. And, again, aimed at regions of global importance.

I'm not sure it's a historical irony at all, the EU and UN have long been sympathetic to Islam, even to the detriment of their own citizens.

To be fair to him, he never was against deploying American troops at the beginning of the war, he forced his party members to vote for it. But his efforts were not enough.

The way it was reported here was that he pretended to try to force the vote through, but stopped short of what was actually needed. It reminded me of Bill Clinton hiding his treasonous "mistakes" behind incompetence ("just another bureaucratic SNAFU..."). I do hope you will be able to vote him out ASAP. We were never able to vote Clinton out to our own harm and shame.

Thank you for your very good points about economic stability and preservation of civil rights--especially in shaky times.

You are right that things are never as simple or as easy as they look from the outside and with the limited knowledge that outsiders have.

Good luck to you and to your country in your efforts to preserve and protect all the things that made you successful. And the same to my country.

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