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To: POA2
And no there is no reason to OVER Sample Republicans and UNder-sampel Dem's (or vise versa) if the goal is to predict an accurate representation of what the outcome of the election would be if held on that day! -

Interesting semantics. No, but there might be a reason to call more Reps than Dems if other factors affect the results. Statisticians do this all the time. It's called normalization. Trust me, their statisticians are thoroughly familiar with how it is done and the need for it. This technique results in equal sampling, not over-under sampling. Yes, I'm sure they're biased but propagandists are far more sophisticated than you may naively think and I can assure you they would not be so stupid as to call more Reps for no reason, thus creating an error outside their own MOE and making it blatantly obvious they did so to people like yourself. They're smarter than that. They'll bias it in other, much more subtle ways. Given how obvious all this is, it's clear to me that you have an agenda to downplay Bush gains.
127 posted on 09/05/2004 1:55:21 PM PDT by ableChair
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To: ableChair
This technique results in equal sampling, not over-under sampling. Yes, I'm sure they're biased but propagandists are far more sophisticated than you may naively think and I can assure you they would not be so stupid as to call more Reps for no reason, thus creating an error outside their own MOE and making it blatantly obvious they did so to people like yourself.

Ok, the last time here - If you are suggesting I am down-playing GWB gains - That is simply being a paranoid weirdo (for lack of a better term) -

And like I said before - NewsWeeks polls speak for themselves! - They are junk polls - period. They are not used for accuracy they are used to spin news stories -

Do you believe NewsWeeks poll from several weeks ago that showed Kerry up by 8pts....and that Kerry was winning on the issue of who do Americans support on the WOT?? - (The Newsweek showed Kerry above GWB on the WOT?) -

DO you believe CBS polls? - (They are junk as well....regardless if they show GWB up at some time) -

Lastly, they aren't calling anyone to adjust - They are simply adjusting their weighting formula - (making the responses from Dem's at 31% and Responses from Rep's at 38%) -

And Lastly - If you think GWB is up by 11pts - Well, lets see if you are proven right - This up coming week both IBD and Gallup will have polls out - If they show GWB up by 10pts....so be it, I'll be glad -

But I'll bet you a dime....he's lead is closer to 5pts - (which will further prove my point that NewsWeek polls are junk) -

133 posted on 09/05/2004 3:50:34 PM PDT by POA2
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To: ableChair
Go here for a full break-down - Which supports what I have been saying - A fellow-freeper has done excellent work!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1207803/posts

136 posted on 09/05/2004 4:18:03 PM PDT by POA2
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