I pay no attention to the numbers, the distance between the two--I pay attention to the DIRECTION.
Kerry got no bounce, yet in the last week I've heard from multiple sources he DID get a bounce--this was news to me!
But it's CLEAR from the polls so far, Bush got SOME movement.
More indicative to me that Bush is pulling away or will win:
1. The Russian situation. No one watching that is thinking "Let's change presidents, that will make sure this doesn't happen here." Sorry DUers--NO ONE.
2. The chaos in the Kerry campaign, leading to that embarassing late night "what are we here for?" gathering.
3. Alan Colmes and other libs calling for negativity--you don't do that when you're flying high.
4. The campaigns; Karen Hughes is saying they don't need polls to know they're ahead in certain states; Tad Devine is getting nasty with Sean Hannity.
5. The media, Chrissy M and Andrea Greenspan, seem to be getting antsy.
6. No one likes Kerry.
7. Kerry is trapped in an Escher-like maze of Vietnam, and can't talk about anything else.
8.Economic news.
Every presidential election season we worry about polls and every time we re-learn the lesson that polls don't start to mean anything until after both parties have had their conventions. Even Mondale had a 2 point lead over Reagan after the 1984 Democratic convention but before the GOP's.