Posted on 09/02/2004 9:02:41 PM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
Forecaster Avila has been putting in long days these last few.........
If any Floridians are planning on evacuating now, please consider driving to the Keys.
No traffic, no danger, little bad weather, lots of rooms, lots of gas, margaritas and conch fritters.
I can’t believe more people haven’t figured this out yet. Took my boy and wife to Holliday Isle swimming in Islamorada 2 hours ago. A little windy, very widely scattered showers. Great place to ride out the storm. Spanish Motel in Key West is probably better, but another hour and a half away.
Corrected Georgetown on abaco islands to Hopetown
...Frances weakens some as it drifts slowly west-northwestward... ...High winds and heavy rainfall pummel the northwestern Bahamas...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward to the Seven Mile Bridge...including Florida Bay.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located near latitude 25.9 north...longitude 77.5 west or about 90 miles... 145 km...east-southeast of Freeport Grand Bahama Island and 200 miles east-southeast of the Florida lower East Coast.
Frances has been drifting slowly toward the west-northwest near 4 mph...6 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. However...steering currents have become weak and some erratic motion can be expected. On this track...the core of Hurricane Frances will continue to move slowly over the northwestern Bahamas tonight...and will be near the Florida East Coast on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...170 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Frances a strong category two hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. During the past hour...ham radio operators at abaco island reported sustained winds of 70 mph with gusts to 88 mph at Hopetown...and sustained winds of 80 mph at Little Harbor. The Settlement point C-man station on western Grand Bahama Island recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph with a gust to 62 mph ...And a gust to 45 mph was reported at the Lake Worth Florida C-man station.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by a hurricane hunter plane was 960 mb...28.35 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 12 feet above normal tide levels... along with dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the eye of Frances on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west side of the other islands of the Bahamas. Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above normal lake water level is expected in Lake Okeechobee.
Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches... are possible in association with Frances over the Bahamas.
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause dangerous surf and rip currents.
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...25.9 N... 77.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 4 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 960 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
I have one of the great recipes for conch fritters.
2 of the keys are fresh conch and garlic.
I heard a possibility of 12+hours sustained 100 mph winds for Orlando yesterday. I brushed it aside as too-much-too-early predictions but now I'm wondering. This is one nasty bugger of a storm!
Downgraded from Category 3 to 2 - great news, Dog Gone!
That's a little like how the flight attendants always remind: your nearest exit might be right behind you.
stay safe out there & cheers!
Thanks for the pingy-dingy. I'm safe, I think. Fort Lauderdale will get wind and rain, for sure, but the brunt seems to be quite a bit north.
Besides, my two labs barely fit in the car!
Yeah, I was thinking of fleeing with my 5 dogs and a wife in the pickup, probably a good thing we thought better of it.
Moving at 4 mph now...
What a weird storm.
I remember you saying that. Your in Broward?
One of the predictions was that this storm would be moving NW-ward at 2mph, with a possible stall. Not my idea of a good time, if I was anywhere near the east coast.
No, south Dade.
I'd figure we were out of the woods, except the thing has kind of stopped, maybe.
Anyway, I believe we're still going to be OK here.
Boarded up anyway.
But this was a slamdunk Cat 4 a couple of days ago. The extra time it's taking to get ashore allows more people to get safe, and the weakening is fabulous news. If nothing else changes, this could still be very damaging, maybe more from flooding than winds, but with far less loss of life than a Cat 4 racing ashore.
It sure is strange. Hopefully it will stall out completely. It's still good though if everyone continues to act "as if" it's the strong Category 4 it was. If anything, this is a good dress rehearsal for any future storms.
Flooding will be bad enough. Continued prayers that it weakens even more.
I just heard about the 2 mph thing on the local radio (am 610).
I hope it finds reverse and starts backing up!
THanks for refreshing my memory.
I assume you have power--lol! The earlier band took out 186,000 people, power wise.
Did anybody see Shepard Smith going ballistic when he thought he was off camera just now on Fox News?
no! what happened?
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