Brad Carson (D-OK) Dips Below 40? (his website has no mention he is a Democrat, supports Kerry)

The Hotline ^ | 9/2/04

[Cableguy]

A Soonerpoll.com poll; conducted 8/30; surveyed 435 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.6% (Soonerpoll.com, 9/1).

General Election Matchup Now 8/1 Coburn 44% 39% Carson 37 42 Undec. 20 19

[Cableguy]

When Democrats can't advertise as Democrats, or even that they support Kerry, you know they are losing the battle

[dirtboy]

Ten point delta on that one. Go Coburn!

[comebacknewt]

Guys like Carson and Daschle have to be really nervous about the Kerry implosion. Even Irksome Bowels should be fearful.

JFnK is likely to go down in flames in the South, the Plains, and the Mountain West. Hopefully, he can take some RAT Senatorial candidates down with him.

[WestTexasWend]

Not only is he hiding the fact he's a liberal Democrat, his adds make him look like a conservative's dream. The only thing missing is a tattered Reagan bumpersticker on the old pickup truck he's using. Weasel.

[zbigreddogz]

Bowles should be afraid anyway. I still think it's a 50/50 race at worst.

[okstate]

From soonerpolitics.com:

"ANOTHER POLL, ANOTHER COBURN LEAD (8/26)

The Oklahoman ran apoll at the end of last week (8/15-18; n = 500 -- 300 telephone, 200 internet). Dr. Coburn maintains his lead over Rep. Carson, nine points in this poll, 46% to 37%.


Carson is up 2:1 among Democrats (54%-27%) 7:1 among Liberals (71%-11%), and 2:1 among Moderates (54%-26%), but trails among Republicans (15%-45%), Conservatives (19%-70%).

Regional breakouts (by congressional district):
1 (Tulsa):
Coburn 44, Carson 40
2 (Green Country, Little Dixie):
Carson 46, Coburn 36
3 (Western and northern Oklahoma:
Carson 43, Coburn 40
4 (south-central Oklahoma and Cleveland County)
Coburn 52, Carson 35
5 (Oklahoma City):
Coburn 56, Carson 21"

Those results show you how conservative Oklahoma really is.

The only thing that concerns me right now is that Carson is that far ahead in CD2 (which was the district of both Coburn and Carson).

[Phantom Lord]

How long before he runs ad showing President Bush like Tom Daschle?

[Phantom Lord]

Even Irksome Bowels should be fearful.

This is Bowels 2nd run for the Senate. He has yet to disclose that he worked for Clinton.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"The only thing that concerns me right now is that Carson is that far ahead in CD2 (which was the district of both Coburn and Carson)."

---

If Carson carries the counties in his congressional district by only 10% (as he is in this poll), he can't win statewide. We can't expect Coburn to carry eat, since not only is it the least Republican part of OK, it also includes a whole slew of traditionally Democrat Little Dixie counties that were added to the district in 2002, so Carson has represented them but not Coburn.

I'm actually more concerned with (and surprised by) Carson being up in Lucas's CD-03. This is a heavily Republican district, and Coburn needs to do a better job of getting his name and views out in those rural areas.

[A Jovial Cad]

Carson is running ads here that make him look like he's the *GOP* candidate, instead of the Dim. Talks about illegal immigrants, gun rights, etc. He's really running as a Republican, not a Democrat.
His numbers in Western Oklahoma really worry me--Coburn should be running away with it out there. But as long as Coburn remains ahead in both the OKC & Tulsa regions, and can at least break even in the west, he should win. Far eastern Oklahoma is the only "blue" patch in this state, so I'm not too worried about Carson's lead out there.
I still believe that Coburn will win, and probably convincingly, but Carson is using smart tactics to do all that he can to make it as close as possible.

[ConservativeMan55]

I met Tom Coburn last night! We had over 300 people show up to hear him speak.

[LS]

This is what I said on all these "We-better-not-get-cocky" threads: The real question is not Bush losing now, but whether Kerry collapses so much that the senate seats that were previously "safe" for the Dems start to become competitive (AR, NV, WA, CA). I think Dashcle is already in trouble; and I think AK will be safe now. NC may become a real battle.

[Brett66]

Excellent news! BTTT!