The margin of error is still pretty wide. Remember, nearly every analyst had Charley pegged for Tampa and look how wrong they were.
Looks like DisneyWorld will get blasted. Labor Day visitors are likely a goner for them.
I'm in Jacksonville and the weather dudes here are stressing that there is still a lot of margin for error. We are preparing nonetheless.
It could still miss the Florida coast entirely. Notice how the northern Florida penninsula is convex towards the West. If Frances takes a more northerly curve a miss is possible. This happened with Hurricane Floyd back in 1999. Back then a high pressure system caused a sharp turn to the north by Floyd. Perhaps similar forces will be at work here. Isn't there a high pressure system now developing over Florida that could block Frances?
The inital track for Charley was coming in above Ft Meyers and exiting Daytona. Then they changed it and then were wrong.
The initial for Frances was in at Daytona and out the top roughly north of Lake City. Now they changed it. But the strike probability still has it Daytona
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604P+GIF/011008P.gif
in spite of the maps.
You have to understand though that Punta Gorda was still in the cone...and it is not that far from Tampa to be honest...only an hour's drive.
