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Dawn53

I think conventional wisdom is they lose strength quickly once they hit land, so even if it came across the state, its force would be greatly lessened once it got to Tampa.

I live in Tampa as well, visiting my kids (four teenagers) in Melbourne every weekend.

Westernern Kissimme (Intercession City, etc) really got clobbered by Charley, and they weren't even in the main path. They might have been 35 miles away from Charley's Eye.

Conclusion and Predictions ?

Hurricane Frances won't hit Melbourne head-on. That priveledge goes to Vero Beach.

Then it'll churn about fifty miles due north, to where Melbourne / Palm Bay recieves a 75 % hit (winds at 125 MPH).

After knocking-down all power and communications along the "Space and Treasure Coast", damned Frances will wobble west for a liesurly I-4 tour of Central Florida, as it winds it's way to Tampa St-Pete, where all we'll get (here) is eight inches of rain with winds at 75 MPH.

Oh Brother ... What a Labor Day Weekend this is gonna be.

You can bet that Bush-&-Bush are ALREADY getting the Big Guns ready to restore Central Florida ASAP ... because it's going to get Hammered 2X worse than Charley.

Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.

General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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Hurricane Frances won't hit Melbourne head-on. That priveledge goes to Vero Beach.

Considering the current model divergence, we're still not going to be sure what STATE Frances will hit till sometime tomorrow, at the earliest, much less picking specific cities.

That priveledge goes to Vero Beach

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This is what I'm afraid of. Godparents in Vero Beach. My best friend lives in St. Cloud and they got hammered by Charley inland--no power, trees down, damage to homes so it is frightenign to think what this one might do even inland.

Patton,
Great name, my son is named Patton. My daughter was scheduled for a field hockey tour. in Orlando. We pulled her out but the other 25 kids,their coaches, and their parents went anyways. They play Friday and Sat. and are scheduled to fly out Sun. What risk are they in? I am an upstate NYer who has never been in an hurricane.