Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-01 (New Thread)

Various | 2004-09-01 | Patton@Bastogne

[tutstar]

What's ECMWF and GFS?
blonde here...LOL, and it's early

[Rebelbase]

Look at the time-line on this projection. It shows the storm taking nearly 24 hours to go from about Port St. Lucie to Orlando, then another 24 hours to finally exit the state to the north...nearly 48 hours of Hurricane and then Tropical Storm for Florida. That kind of lingering is going to be catastrophic for Central Florida.

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Dawn53


I think conventional wisdom is they lose strength quickly once they hit land, so even if it came across the state, its force would be greatly lessened once it got to Tampa.


I live in Tampa as well, visiting my kids (four teenagers) in Melbourne every weekend.

Westernern Kissimme (Intercession City, etc) really got clobbered by Charley, and they weren't even in the main path. They might have been 35 miles away from Charley's Eye.



Conclusion and Predictions ?

Hurricane Frances won't hit Melbourne head-on. That priveledge goes to Vero Beach.

Then it'll churn about fifty miles due north, to where Melbourne / Palm Bay recieves a 75 % hit (winds at 125 MPH).

After knocking-down all power and communications along the "Space and Treasure Coast", damned Frances will wobble west for a liesurly I-4 tour of Central Florida, as it winds it's way to Tampa St-Pete, where all we'll get (here) is eight inches of rain with winds at 75 MPH.

Oh Brother ... What a Labor Day Weekend this is gonna be.

You can bet that Bush-&-Bush are ALREADY getting the Big Guns ready to restore Central Florida ASAP ... because it's going to get Hammered 2X worse than Charley.




Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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[Strategerist]

The ECMWF is a European weather model. The GFS is the primary American weather model, which runs 4 times a day, rather than twice as the ECMWF.

The GFS is know for "flopping around" (changing its solution) often.

A large number of private meteorologists consider the EC far superior to the GFS, though I think that superiority may be somewhat overblown.

[Strategerist]

Hurricane Frances won't hit Melbourne head-on. That priveledge goes to Vero Beach.

Considering the current model divergence, we're still not going to be sure what STATE Frances will hit till sometime tomorrow, at the earliest, much less picking specific cities.

[PJ-Comix]

It could still miss the Florida coast entirely. Notice how the northern Florida penninsula is convex towards the West. If Frances takes a more northerly curve a miss is possible. This happened with Hurricane Floyd back in 1999. Back then a high pressure system caused a sharp turn to the north by Floyd. Perhaps similar forces will be at work here. Isn't there a high pressure system now developing over Florida that could block Frances?

[PJ-Comix]

Are there any models now showing a South Florida landfall (south of Lake Okeechobee) or are they all showing the more northerly projection?

[tutstar]

Thanks!!

[sonjay]

Don't focus on the skinny line!!!

That's what the local emergency guy here in Punta Gorda kept saying after Charley hit. He said he wanted to have that inscribed on his gravestone. Don't focus on the skinny line! Frances could go anywhere.

I bugged out of Punta Gorda a few hours before Charley hit, when all the tv heads were still calling it for at least an hour or two north of us. We were, of course, within the wider "cone" path the entire time.

Don't focus on the skinny line!

[Strategerist]

The current model spread of the models that matter is from Miami, FL to the Georgia/South Carolina border.

[PJ-Comix]

Thanx. BTW, what is the deal with a high pressure system over South Florida? I heard something about that yesterday. I remember in '99 that the high pressure system made Floyd take a sharp turn to the north.

[Strategerist]

It was a trough to the north that made Floyd turn to the North.

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Dawn53, DogGone, OXENinFLA, Section9,







Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.


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[GRRRRR]

[Archangelsk]

The high pressure system is a weakening ridge that kept Frances on a southerly track. Right now that ridge is abating which is allowing Frances to turn north. Unfortunately, the models and the current dynamics don't allow enough time for the hurricane to follow the normal 'Floyd' track out of here.

Of course, anything could happen, but the safe money is on evacuating and preparation which is what we are doing.

[OXENinFLA]

That would be an odd path...

[dawn53]

Ha ha, very funny!!!

My MIL is 85 and lives in a retirement home here, it's on the water.

They got evacuated to a "sister" complex in Sarasota last time. She's already getting her stuff together for another trip. If the EOC gives an evacuation order, her complex moves quickly. Last time they had charter buses pick up the residents and move them by late Thursday afternoon (the evac order came at noon.)

We'd have her come stay with us (actually me and my son because hubby has to be in city operations center during a storm), but she is dependent on electricity for some of her health needs (nebulizer, etc.) and that's one sure thing we'd probably be without in the event of any kinds of winds. We live in an area with LOTS of trees.

[tutstar]

Yes,there is a high pressure system which they showed to the east and if it weakens N FL gets the storm. Bad memory here so that could be backwards, there is a low to our north which is presently stalled according the local report just a little while ago.

[mhking]

According to the 5A Update, the central pressure on Frances is falling. According to Hurricane Hunter aircraft, it is down to 935 MB.

It should take a few hours, but the wind speed is expected to pick up. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a CAT 5 on our hands.

Hurricane City is planning on starting live streaming later today, with radio from the Bahamas and the shortwave Hurricane Watch Net. Jim Williams will be live this evening with analysis, phone calls from the affected area and live updates from television stations in South Florida.

[tutstar]

We live in an area with LOTS of trees.

All those pine trees out back look pretty until a hurricane threatens, then it's not such a comforting sight!