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Hurricane Frances: Latest computer models appear to be converging on solution.
NHC ^

Posted on 08/30/2004 12:30:15 PM PDT by dennis1x

The latest runs appear to be settling on a mid-Florida landfall. GFDL still outlier to right but shifting south. Still lots of time for that to change....dont count out recurvature.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: frances; hurricane; hurricanefrances
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To: 2nd amendment mama

again...Frances WAS a cat4 hurricane...it has weakened fairly considerably since then.....


21 posted on 08/30/2004 12:42:47 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: dennis1x

i agree with you. its going to SC.


22 posted on 08/30/2004 12:43:41 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: Dooderbutt; January24th
and Frances has me quite worried

Not me. Charley already cleared the trees outta my yard and crashed my screen pourch. What's Francis gonna do besides fill the pool? OTOH, I think I'll wait about a week before doing any replacement planting.

23 posted on 08/30/2004 12:44:00 PM PDT by Camachee (`)
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To: dennis1x
The timing is suspicious.
24 posted on 08/30/2004 12:44:12 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative (Do not remove this tag under penalty of law.)
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Buy orange juice futures.


25 posted on 08/30/2004 12:44:28 PM PDT by bankwalker (We are having a cultural civil war and our side had better win it.)
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To: holdmuhbeer
...it always hits NC.

And we here in the Old North State are tired of hurricanes too. Every time another one shows up on the radar anywhere in the Atlantic my daughter starts asking me when it's going to come to NC.

26 posted on 08/30/2004 12:44:31 PM PDT by mommybain (Summer has been repealed...by the NC Board of Education)
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To: dennis1x
From the 11 AM advisory:

It is extremely important not to focus on the exact track... especially at 96 and 120 hours...

27 posted on 08/30/2004 12:45:21 PM PDT by dirtboy (Forget Berger's socks - has ANYONE searched his skin folds for classified documents?)
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To: dennis1x

Don't you all know that the demonic Karl Rove and his Big Evil Texas Weather Machine are doing this to STEAL all of Florida's Electoral Votes??? That whole "Mother Nature" scam is just another RNC cover up!

I mean really, guys - you need to go to legitimate news outlets like DUh to get the CORRECT story.


28 posted on 08/30/2004 12:47:00 PM PDT by rocky88 ("It's goin to be the summer of George! (W. Bush, that is!)")
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To: dennis1x
My money is on FL/GA border...specifically Amelia City FL. My hedge bet is on a drastic turn NE as it gets closer with no direct hit to the US mainland.
29 posted on 08/30/2004 12:47:40 PM PDT by Indie (Ignorance of the truth is no excuse for stupidity.)
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To: dirtboy

She's going to defy the NHC and all the models and slam into downtown Miami as a Category 7.


30 posted on 08/30/2004 12:48:41 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Indie
My hedge bet is on a drastic turn NE as it gets closer with no direct hit to the US mainland

extremely unlikely as the debate is how strong the ridge will be....not whether it will be absent. hard to see any chance of an easterly component to this one until well after landfall.

31 posted on 08/30/2004 12:49:17 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: dennis1x

It was a 4, now a 3, but they expect it to return to AT LEAST a 4 by tomorrow.


32 posted on 08/30/2004 12:50:23 PM PDT by Hoodlum91
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To: bankwalker
Buy orange juice futures.


33 posted on 08/30/2004 12:50:34 PM PDT by OXENinFLA
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To: dennis1x

And it's all just speculation until Mother Nature makes up her mind. Folks should be aware, maybe get a few things ready, but no one in Florida will know where this sucker might be headed for at least 2-3 days.


34 posted on 08/30/2004 12:51:55 PM PDT by dirtboy (Forget Berger's socks - has ANYONE searched his skin folds for classified documents?)
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To: dennis1x

35 posted on 08/30/2004 12:53:37 PM PDT by Fierce Allegiance ( "Stay safe in the "sandbox", cuz!)
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To: bankwalker
Already a cat 4. I guess it depends on how you define "disaster".

Not quite. As of 3:00 p.m. EDT Frances has sustained winds of 120 mph, which is a mid-level Cat 3, and is moving due west at 14 mph.

36 posted on 08/30/2004 12:53:45 PM PDT by Labyrinthos
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To: 2nd amendment mama
It's already a category 4 hurricane...this is a disastrous hurricane

No, Frances is a Cat 3 hurricane.  See the current Immediate Advisory and check out the maximum wind speed described in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale posted below the advisory.  120mph sustained winds puts Frances smack dab in the middle of a Category 3 hurricane (111 mph to 120 mph).  But then, as we saw with Charley, things can change very quickly indeed.

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 23a

Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on August 30, 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Frances continues westward...
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following Leeward
Islands by their governments...Antigua...Barbuda...St maarten...
Anguilla...Nevis...St Kitts...St eustatius and Saba.  A tropical
storm watch is in effect for St Martin and St Barthelemy.  The
government of France will likely upgrade this watch to a Tropical
Storm Warning later this afternoon.  A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the British and northern
U.S. Virgin Islands including St Thomas...St John and surrounding
islands...and for the island of Culebra.  A tropical storm watch
remains in effect for Puerto Rico and Vieques.
A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch means that tropical storm or
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.
At 2 PM AST...1800z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 19.3 north...longitude  59.4 west or about  190
miles... 310 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Frances is moving toward the west near 14 mph ...22 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected over the next 24 hours.  On this track
the core of the hurricane will pass to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands late tonight and early Tuesday.  However the outer
bands of Frances will begin affecting these islands beginning later
this afternoon. 
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Some increase in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours.  A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Frances this afternoon.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is  956 mb...28.23 inches.
 
Repeating the 2 PM AST position...19.3 N... 59.4 W.  Movement
toward...west near 14 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...120 mph. 
Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.
Forecaster Pasch
$$

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale


The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.

Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 was a Category Two hurricane when it hit the North Carolina coast, while Hurricane Georges of 1998 was a Category Two Hurricane when it hit the Florida Keys and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.

Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is one of the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclones of record.

37 posted on 08/30/2004 12:53:50 PM PDT by Catspaw
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To: OXENinFLA

38 posted on 08/30/2004 12:54:34 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Pyro7480

Well, if a hurricane is bound and determined to hit Florida, I wish like hell it'd be a late-season storm....say around November 2nd.

We won't call off or postpone the election in the event of a terror attack - we couldn't very well do it for a hurricane either, now could we?

Not to cast bad wishes or dispersions too widely, but most folks who are too fraile to go to the polls in bad weather are most likely also too intellectually feeble to decide who should run the most powerful nation on Earth.

(I know I'm in for a $h!t storm of complaints about this post, but what the hell.....BRING IT ON!!!)


39 posted on 08/30/2004 12:55:01 PM PDT by Don Simmons (General Welfare doesn't mean you can generally stay on Welfare!)
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To: not-alone

"Palm beach needs to watch this one"

George Soros has a weather control machine and is trying to shut Rush Limbaugh up for good.


40 posted on 08/30/2004 12:55:03 PM PDT by Rebelbase (John Kerry, sign form 180 .)
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