Posted on 08/29/2004 9:11:58 AM PDT by quantim
LANSING, Mich. (AP) — If you think President Bush has been in Michigan a lot this summer, you're right.
The Republican president made weekly visits to Michigan in July and has been here every other week in August. Bush's third campaign stop of the month comes Monday at Heritage Park in Taylor as he works his way to the Republican National Convention in New York City.
Democrat John Kerry has made two campaign visits to Michigan this month, stopping in Taylor — at the same place Bush will be Monday — and Grand Rapids during a two-day swing that was part of his post-convention, cross-country tour.
But those visits came the first two days of August, and Kerry isn't expected to return to the state until close to Labor Day, aides say, stretching his time away from the state to five weeks.
Political science professor David Rohde of Michigan State University said if Kerry's lead in the latest state polls holds up, "it's not at all clear he has to come here ever again to carry the state."
Michigan went for Democrats Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and Al Gore in 2000. A Republican presidential candidate hasn't won the state since Bush's father did in 1988.
Rohde expects the race to tighten, however, after Bush addresses the GOP convention Thursday night. He doesn't think Kerry has hurt his chances by campaigning elsewhere most of the month, and said its likely Michigan will be seeing lots more of Kerry and Bush before the Nov. 2 election.
Donnie Fowler, state director of the Kerry campaign, said Kerry and running mate John Edwards have been in Michigan less often than Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney this month partly because the Democrats are fighting for more battleground states.
"The campaign believes Kerry and Edwards are more competitive in more states than Bush and Cheney are right now," Fowler said. "Bush and Cheney seem to be focused on the Midwest and maybe Florida to the exclusion of the rest of the country."
Bush has made 19 visits to Michigan since becoming president in January 2001, while Kerry has visited Michigan 11 times since March 2003. Both men have made seven stops in the state so far this year.
The candidates have tried to increase their reach in the state by sending in their wives and running mates.
Cheney campaigned Aug. 11 in Battle Creek and spoke last Tuesday to a Republican National Committee rally in Waterford. First Lady Laura Bush held a rally Aug. 9 at a Boys and Girls Club in Royal Oak.
On the Democratic side, vice presidential candidate John Edwards held two Aug. 13 campaign events in Flint and Kerry's wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, campaigned in Southfield last Thursday.
Other family members, party leaders, elected officials and campaign advisers also have held conference calls and news conferences to draw attention to the weaknesses and strengths of the presidential rivals. Voters have been deluged with political ads in Michigan, one of roughly 17 states being targeted as potentially up for grabs.
But it's the visits by the presidential candidates that garner the most attention.
"Both campaigns recognize the importance of Michigan," said Bush campaign spokeswoman Merrill Smith. "We are 100 percent committed to Michigan. We are going to continue to work hard there to shift Michigan into the win column."
Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd thinks Bush has a better chance of winning Michigan this year than in 2000, in part because the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Michigan have more Republican voters than four years ago.
But turnout is key.
"We're doing all we can to turn out GOP voters in suburbs outside Detroit and around Grand Rapids," Dowd said.
Fowler said he doesn't think the frequent Bush-Cheney visits have had much of an impact, other than to fire up Michigan Democrats. Kerry took his first sizable lead over Bush in a Michigan poll earlier this month.
Craig Ruff of Public Sector Consultants, a Lansing think tank, said every campaign visit presents an opportunity to win voters, but also carries risk.
One memorable example is a 1988 campaign stop at a General Dynamics tank facility in Sterling Heights by Democratic presidential candidate Michael Dukakis. That haunted him for the rest of the campaign after he donned a helmet and rode in a M-1 Abrams tank as part of an effort to counter Republican portrayals of him as weak on defense.
"It always helps to show up — if you don't wear a helmet," Ruff said.
Ping.
Its clear Bush thinks Michigan is winnable or he wouldn't be going there a lot. If turnout from Detroit is lower than in 2000, he might just carry the state with votes from the exurbs and the Upper Peninsula.
Here is a political datum for you to chew on.
a bump for BUSH and http://www.swiftvets.com/
And that lead has shrunk in most recent polls. If the gay marriage issue makes the ballot, Kerry is in more trouble. It's about turnout here.
GWB has made 19 trips to MI as president, so far. I really really want this state in the Bush column on Nov. 2. My college son would've voted for him but apparently, you can't vote absentee if you've never voted before, so he hasn't even registered. Bummer
Presdient Bush should make a visit to the Capitol
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